Less U.S.-Advantageous PMI Spreads in August

September 3, 2015

In July when Grexit fever was at a high burn, the sum of the U.S.-minus-Eurozone purchasing manager survey differential had jumped to 6.6 points from 2.6 points the month before, but 80% of that increase was reversed in August.  It was reported on Monday that the U.S. manufacturing PMI declined 1.6 points last month while Euroland’s edged back just 0.1 point.  Today saw the release of the U.S. non-manufacturing PMI, showing a 1.3-point decline juxtaposed against a 0.4-point rise in Euroland’s services PMI.

In the U.S. survey, the jobs and prices components fell by 3.6 and 2.9 points respectively.  A 50.9 reading on prices implies scant upward pressure on prices just two weeks before Fed officials decide whether to hike the Fed funds rate.  Euroland’s services PMI score of 54.4 matches June’s 49-month high.  The Italian reading of 54.6 was at a 65-month high, and the German 54.9 reading was the best score since March.  The Irish and Spanish readings averaged 60.9, and the French index, while just 50.6, was above the 50 no change threshold for the third straight month.

PMIs U.S. Ezone   U.S. Ezone   Sum of
  Services Services Spread Mf’g Mf’g Spread Spreads
Jan 2012 56.8 50.4 +6.4 54.1 48.8 +5.3 +10.9
Feb 56.1 48.8 +7.3 51.9 49.0 +2.9 +10.2
March 55.0 49.2 +5.8 53.3 47.7 +5.6 +11.4
April 53.7 46.9 +6.8 54.1 45.9 +8.2 +15.0
May 54.1 46.7 +7.4 52.5 45.1 +7.4 +14.8
June 52.7 47.1 +5.6 50.2 45.1 +5.1 +10.7
July 52.9 47.9 +5.0 50.5 44.0 +6.5 +11.5
August 54.3 47.2 +7.1 50.7 45.1 +5.6 +12.7
Sept 55.2 46.1 +9.1 51.6 46.1 +5.5 +14.6
October 54.8 46.0 +8.8 51.7 45.4 +6.3 +15.1
November 54.8 46.7 +8.1 49.9 46.2 +3.7 +11.8
December 55.7 47.8 +7.9 50.2 46.1 +4.1 +12.0
Jan 2013 55.2 48.6 +6.6 53.1 47.9 +5.2 +11.8
February 54.8 47.9 +8.1 53.1 47.9 +5.2 +13.3
March 54.5 46.4 +8.1 51.5 46.8 +4.7 +12.8
April 53.8 47.0 +6.8 50.0 46.7 +3.3 +10.1
May 54.0 47.2 +6.8 50.0 48.3 +1.7 +8.5
June 53.4 48.3 +5.1 52.5 48.8 +3.7 +8.8
July 55.9 49.8 +6.1 54.9 50.3 +4.6 +10.7
August 57.9 50.7 +7.2 56.3 51.4 +4.9 +12.1
Sept 54.5 52.2 +2.3 56.0 51.1 +4.9 +7.2
October 55.1 51.6 +3.5 56.6 51.3 +5.3 +8.8
November 54.1 51.2 +2.9 57.0 51.6 +5.4 +8.3
December 53.0 51.0 +2.0 56.5 52.7 +3.8 +5.8
Jan 2014 54.0 51.6 +2.4 51.3 54.0 -2.7 -0.3
February 52.5 52.6 -0.1 54.3 53.2 +1.1 +1.0
March 53.7 52.1 +1.6 54.4 53.0 +1.4 +3.0
April 55.3 53.1 +2.2 55.3 53.4 +1.9 +4.1
May 56.1 53.2 +2.9 55.6 52.2 +3.4 +6.3
June 56.3 52.8 +3.5 55.7 51.8 +3.9 +7.4
July 57.9 54.2 +3.7 56.4 51.8 +4.6 +8.3
August 58.6 53.1 +5.5 58.1 50.7 +7.4 +12.9
Sept 58.1 52.4 +5.7 56.1 50.3 +5.8 +11.5
October 56.9 52.1 +4.8 57.9 50.6 +7.3 +12.1
November 58.8 51.1 +7.7 57.6 50.1 +7.5 +15.2
December 56.5 51.6 +4.9 55.1 50.6 +4.5 +9.4
Jan 2015 56.7 52.7 +4.0 53.5 51.0 +2.5 +6.5
February 56.9 53.7 +3.2 52.9 51.0 +1.9 +5.1
March 56.5 54.2 +2.3 51.5 52.2 -0.7 +1.6
April 57.8 54.1 +3.7 51.5 52.0 -0.5 +3.2
May 55.7 53.8 +1.9 52.8 52.2 +0.6 +2.5
June 56.0 54.4 +1.6 53.5 52.5 +1.0 +2.6
July 60.3 54.0 +6.3 52.7 52.4 +0.3 +6.6
August 59.0 54.4 +4.6 51.1 52.3 -1.2 +3.4

Copyright 2015, Larry Greenberg.  All rights reserved.  No secondary distribution without express permission.

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