Whole Lot of Data Getting Released

July 31, 2014

The deluge of monthend data releases continued on Thursday, but the dollar hasn’t reacted much, with no net change against the yen, yuan and kiwi, upticks of 0.1% versus the euro, Swissie and loonie, and gains of 0.2% relative to sterling and 0.4% vis-a-vis the Australian dollar.

Share prices are mostly lower, but a 1.2% advance in China’s market is an exception.  Stocks are down 1.4% in Taiwan, 0.7% in India and France, 1.8% in Spain, 1.3% in Italy, 0.9% in Germany and 0.2% in Japan and Indonesia.

Ten-year British gilt and Japanese JGB yields firmed a basis point, while the 10-year German bund is steady.

Oil and gold are under the thresholds of $100 a barrel and $1,300 per ounce, respectively.  WTI fell 0.8% to $99.49.  Comex gold slid 0.1% to $1,296.

Euro area consumer price inflation ticked down 0.1 percentage point to a four-year low of 0.4% in July according to preliminary estimates.  That’s only a fourth as much as a 1.6% increase in the prior year to July 2013.  Energy posted a 1.0% on-year drop compared to +0.1% in June and +1.6% in July 2013.  Food price inflation swung from 3.5% in July 2013 to negative 0.3% in July 2014.  Core inflation of 0.8% was unchanged from June’s level and down just 0.3 percentage points from July 2013.

Euro area unemployment slid to 11.5% in June from 11.6% in May and 12.0% in June 2013. 

German retail sales volume jumped 1.3% in June following three consecutive month-on-month declines.  Sales still slipped 0.3% on quarter in 2Q and were just 0.4% higher in June than a year before.

The German jobless rate was at 6.7% for a fifth straight month in July.  The number of unemployed workers fell 12K, more than twice expectations, and job vacancies rose for a second straight time.  Employment grew 0.9% between 2Q13 and 2Q14.

French consumer spending, up 0.9% on month and 1.8% on year in June, outperformed expectations.  Producer prices in France were unchanged on month after posting drops in each of the first five months of the year.  On-year PPI inflation was the highest in 15 months, albeit just +0.5%.

Italian CPI inflation eased to 0.1% in June from 0.3% the month before.  Producer prices dropped 1.6% on year, after a 1.4% decline in the year to May.  Italian unemployment slid to 12.3% from 12.6% in May.

British consumer confidence fell three points to a minus 2 reading in July.  The Nationwide U.K. house price index exhibited decelerating upward pressure, edging up only 0.1% on month in July and gaining 10.6% on year versus market expectations of 11.3%.

Greek retail sales volume declined by 8.5% on year and 3.8% on month in May.  Cypriot and Hungarian producer prices fell by 3.3% and 0.6% in the year to June. 

Spain’s current account deficit in May was 63.5% smaller than the April shortfall.

S&P declared Argentina in default for the second time since 2001, as debt talks collapsed.

Japanese labor cash earnings grew 0.4% on year in June after a 0.6% rise in May.  It’s good to see positive growth in this measure of wages, but the magnitude remains paltry.  Japanese motor vehicle production climbed 6.6% on year in June, a bit more than in May.  A 9.5% on-year drop in housing starts was the fourth such decline in a row though less than a fall of 15% in the year to May.  Construction orders advanced 9.3%, in contrast, marking their third on-year rise in a row.

Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas increased the Filipino central bank borrowing and lending rates by 25 basis points a piece  to 3.75% and 5.75% in a preemptive move to ensure anchored inflation expectations.  Like Malaysia earlier in July, this was the first tightening since May 2011.

Australian building permits fell 5.0% in June after a 9.9% advance the month before.  Aussie M3 money growth accelerated to 7.0% on year in June from 6.5% in May.  Aussie import prices fell 3% last quarter, but export prices slumped by a steeper 7.9%.  New Zealand M3 money growth edged up to 5.4% in June from 5.2% in May.

Hong Kong retail sales recorded 12-month declines in June of 7.5% in volume and 6.9% in value.  Real GDP in Taiwan accelerated more than anticipated to an on-year pace of 3.8% in the second quarter from 2.8% in 1Q.

Turkish consumer confidence edged up to 73.9% in May from 73.7% the month before.  South African producer prices rose 8.1% in the year to June, less than May’s 8.7% pace but well above the very low levels reported elsewhere today.

Scheduled U.S. data to be released today include the employment cost index, weekly jobless insurance claims, and the Chicago and Milwaukee purchasing manager indices.  Canada will be reporting monthly GDP, and the Czech National Bank announces its latest decision on monetary policy.

Copyright 2014, Larry Greenberg.  All rights reserved.  No secondary distribution without express permission.

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