U.S.-Minus-Ezone Factory PMI Spread Remained Small in May
June 2, 2014
The manufacturing purchasing managers survey between the United States and the euro area, +1.0, was 0.5 points narrower in May than April and the fourth straight month of 1.5 points or less. The U.S. PMI fell 1.7 points to a three-month low of 53.2. The drop was led by jobs, down 2.8 points, and a 1.8-point decline in new business. Production only slid 0.5 points.
Euroland’s manufacturing PMI declined by 1.2 points to 52.2, which connotes the slowest expansion rate since last November. Germany, Italy, Greece and Austria experienced slower growth than in April, French manufacturing contracted for the first time in three months. Spain’s PMI ticked up 0.2 to a 49-month high of 52.9. Germany, which has been the Euroland economy’s locomotive, more or less grew at the same speed as the average of the whole euro area in May, while the Dutch and Spanish growth in manufacturing accelerated but just barely last month.
Manufacturing tends to be influenced more keenly by shifts in exchange rate values than non-manufacturing. But in spite of the late-May erosion of the euro, EUR/USD in the month remained pretty stable on average. The means for the past six calendar months ranged between a euro high of 1.380 and a low of 1.361, a corridor of just 1.4%, and the May average of $1.374 was 0.3 firmer than the midpoint of those two extremes.
| Mfg PMIs | U.S. | Euroland | Spread | EUR/USD |
| Jan 2012 | 54.1 | 48.8 | +5.3 | 1.290 |
| February | 51.9 | 49.0 | +2.9 | 1.323 |
| March | 53.3 | 47.7 | +5.6 | 1.320 |
| April | 54.1 | 45.9 | +8.2 | 1.315 |
| May | 52.5 | 45.1 | +7.4 | 1.280 |
| June | 50.2 | 45.1 | +5.1 | 1.254 |
| July | 50.5 | 44.0 | +6.5 | 1.230 |
| August | 50.7 | 45.1 | +5.6 | 1.255 |
| September | 51.6 | 46.1 | +5.5 | 1.286 |
| October | 51.7 | 45.4 | +6.3 | 1.297 |
| November | 49.9 | 46.2 | +3.7 | 1.283 |
| December | 50.2 | 46.1 | +4.1 | 1.313 |
| Jan 2013 | 53.1 | 47.9 | +5.2 | 1.330 |
| February | 53.1 | 47.9 | +5.2 | 1.334 |
| March | 51.5 | 46.8 | +4.7 | 1.295 |
| April | 50.0 | 46.7 | +3.3 | 1.301 |
| May | 50.0 | 48.3 | +1.7 | 1.299 |
| June | 52.5 | 48.8 | +3.7 | 1.319 |
| July | 54.9 | 50.3 | +4.6 | 1.309 |
| August | 56.3 | 51.4 | +4.9 | 1.331 |
| September | 56.0 | 51.1 | +4.9 | 1.335 |
| October | 56.6 | 51.3 | +5.3 | 1.364 |
| November | 57.0 | 51.6 | +5.4 | 1.349 |
| December | 56.5 | 52.7 | +3.8 | 1.370 |
| Jan 2014 | 51.3 | 54.0 | -2.7 | 1.361 |
| February | 53.2 | 53.2 | 0.0 | 1.366 |
| March | 53.7 | 53.0 | +0.7 | 1.380 |
| April | 54.9 | 53.4 | +1.5 | 1.380 |
| May | 53.2 | 52.2 | +1.0 | 1.374 |
Copyright 2014, Larry Greenberg. All rights reserved. No secondary distribution without express permission.
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