Next Week

January 17, 2014

Central banks in Canada, Japan, the Philippines, Thailand, Turkey and Hungary are scheduled to hold interest rate-deciding meetings next week.  The Bank of Canada releases a quarterly Monetary Policy Report, and the Bank of England will be publishing minutes from its policy meeting held earlier this month.  The Bank of Japan’s monthly economic assessment arrives.  Governor Kuroda of the Bank of Japan, and Governor Poloz of the Bank of Canada hold press conferences.

The U.S. market will be shut Monday in observe Martin Luther King’s birthday.  Monday also will mark the completion of Barack Obama’s fifth year as president, leaving him with a maximum of three years remaining. 

The annual World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, which in the past has generated its share of market-moving headlines, runs from Wednesday through Saturday. Germany’s high constitutional court on Tuesday is expected to hand down its final ruling on the legality of German participation in the OMT facility of the European Central Bank.

China will be a main focus next week from a data release standpoint, as investors await the arrival of quarterly GDP as well as monthly retail sales, industrial production, business investment, property prices, business climate index, index of leading economic indicators, and the HSBC preliminary manufacturing PMI.

Japan is set to release revised industrial production, capacity usage, supermarket sales, the all-industry index, machine tool orders, and index of leading economic indicators.  Some other Asian data releases to watch for will be South Korean GDP and producer prices; unemployment rates in Taiwan, Hong Kong and Malaysia; Singaporean and Malaysian consumer prices; and the Filipino trade balance.

The United States has a comparatively uneventful week of data releases planned: existing home sales, the K.C. Fed manufacturing index, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, the FHFA housing price index, the Conference Board index of leading economic indicators, Markit Economics’ flash estimate for the manufacturing PMI, and weekly observations of jobless insurance claims, consumer comfort, energy inventories, chain store sales and mortgage applications.

Canada reports consumer prices, wholesale turnover, retail sales, and manufacturing sales and orders.  Mexican retail and wholesale sales also are due, as are Brazilian consumer confidence and current account.

The main euro area data release is going to be the preliminary purchasing manager survey results for the whole region as well as France and Germany.  Investors will learn composite, manufacturing, and service-sector PMI scores for each as well as a whole lot of other minutiae.  Other Ezone-wide releases will cover the current account, house prices, the ZEW index of investor sentiment, and the flash reading of consumer confidence.  In addition, Germany releases the IFO business climate index, producer prices, the index of leading economic indicators and the ZEW expectations index.  French and Belgian business sentiment arrive, as do Belgian and Dutch consumer confidence, Irish, Portuguese, Finnish and Spanish producer prices, Italian retail sales and orders, Spanish, Finnish, and Dutch unemployment and Dutch consumer spending.

The British data calendar shows public sector net borrowing, the public-sector net cash requirement, unemployment, wage earnings, the two CBI monthly surveys of industrial trends and trends in distributive trade activity, the Rightmove house price index, and mortgage approvals according to the BBA.  Some other European releases next week will be Swiss M3 money and ZEW expectations, Icelandic wage inflation, Danish retail sales and consumer confidence, Polish producer prices, retail sales, unemployment and industrial output, and Swedish unemployment.

Australian and New Zealand each report fourth-quarter consumer price data.  Monthly South African CPI figures are due, too.  So are Australian consumer confidence and expected inflation and New Zealand home prices.

Copyright 2014, Larry Greenberg.  All rights reserved.  No secondary distribution without express permission.



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