Next Week

December 13, 2013

Monetary policy meetings next week will be occurring at the Fed and in Japan, Sweden, India, Turkey, the Czech Republic, and Hungary.  Minutes from the early-December meetings of the Reserve Bank of Australia Board and Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee will be published. Leaders of EU gather in Brussels at week’s end for their semi-annual council meeting.

Typical of December and in order to minimize business around the yearend holidays, there will be a heavy flow of data releases.

U.S. statistical releases next week include the current account, revised GDP, industrial production, New York, Kansas City, and Philly Fed manufacturing survey results, Markit Economics’ U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index, labor productivity and unit labor costs, housing starts, building permits, existing home sales, the National Association of Home Builders housing sector index, the index of leading economic indicators, and the index of leading economic indicators.  Plus, the usual assortment of weekly figures on chain store sales, jobless insurance claims, energy inventories, consumer comfort and mortgage applications will be watched.  But all these data will be subordinated in market attention to the FOMC show on Friday.  New summarized projections are due, and there is a press conference with outgoing Chairman Bernanke afterward.  Some analysts think a reduction in quantitative stimulus will be announced.

The calendar of upcoming euro area-wide data releases shows the current account and trade balance, consumer prices, car sales, the ZEW index of investor sentiment, construction output, consumer confidence, and the preliminary and incomplete estimate of the purchasing managers composite, manufacturing and service-sector results.  Flash PMIs also get released for Germany and France.  Other German statistics will be the ZEW index, producer prices, the IFO business climate index.  French, Spanish, and Finnish indices of leading economic indicators are also due.  Italy, Spain, and Belgium report trade data.  French and Belgian business sentiment, Italian orders and retail sales, and the Dutch, Portuguese and Greek current account numbers arrive, as do Greek and Finnish unemployment.

The list of British releases features GDP, the current account, retail sales, consumer prices, and producer prices and also includes the Rightmove house price index, the ONS house price index, the public-sector borrowing requirement, consumer confidence, unemployment, wage growth, and the CBI surveys of industrial trends and distributive trade trends.

Swiss trade figures and new macroeconomic forecasts from the government will be reported.  Sweden and Denmark release producer prices and consumer confidence, while Denmark also reports retail sales and GDP. Norwegian trade data and Icelandic CPI and wage inflation arrive.  Further to the east and south, Poland releases the PPI, CPI and industrial output, while the Czech Republic reports business sentiment, consumer confidence and its PPI.

Japan’s main event, aside from the aforementioned BOJ Board meeting and Kuroda-led press conference, will be the release of the quarterly business Tankan survey, which historically tends to be a strong monetary policy influence.  Monthly Japanese statistical releases next week will cover customs-clearance trade, department store and supermarket sales, the index of leading economic indicators, the all-industry index and machine tool orders.

Some other Asian statistical releases of special interest may be Indian wholesale prices, Chinese property prices, business sentiment and preliminary purchasing managers survey, South Korean producer prices, Malaysian consumer prices, Filipino and Hong Kong current accounts, and Singapore’s trade balance.

New Zealand’s service-sector PMI survey, business sentiment index and consumer confidence are due as are GDP and the current account.  Indices of leading economic indicators will be reported for both South Africa and Australia.  The latter also reports on motor vehicle sales.

Canada’s data calendar shows both retail and wholesale sales, as well as consumer prices, existing home sales and the survey of manufacturing sales, orders and inventories.  In Mexico, retail sales and wholesale turnover are due, too, as is unemployment.  Brazil releases its current account, jobless rate, and consumer confidence.

Copyright 2013, Larry Greenberg.  All rights reserved.  No secondary distribution without express permission.



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