More Purchasing Manager Surveys Released

November 4, 2013

Japanese markets were shut this Monday as the country observed the Culture Day holiday.

Equities in the Pacific Rim mostly softened slightly, with drops of 0.7% in South Korea, 0.6% in the Philippines, 0.4% in Australia and Taiwan, 0.3% in Hong Kong, 0.2% in Indonesia, China and Malaysia and 0.1% in New Zealand.  But share prices in Europe have risen 0.5% in the U.K. and Italy, 0.3% in France and Germany, and 0.2% in Spain.

The dollar is unchanged against the yuan and Swiss franc but has declined by 0.6% versus the kiwi, 0.5% relative to the Australian dollar, 0.3% against sterling, 0.2% vis-a-vis the loonie and 0.1% against the yen and euro.

The price of gold strengthened 0.3% to $1317.60 per troy ounce.  WTI crude oil is unchanged in price at $94.59 per barrel.

The 10-year German bund edged up a basis point, and the 10-year British gilt yield slid a basis point.

The British construction purchasing managers index advanced another half point in October to 59.4, highest in 73 months.

The Sentix gauge of investor sentiment toward the euro area rose 3.2 points to +9.3, the strongest reading so far this year.  The lowest reading of minus 17.5 occurred in April.

Euroland’s final PMI manufacturing score in October of 51.3 matched the preliminary estimate and represents a two-month high.  Recent readings suggest growth in manufacturing of around 2-3% annually, 4-6 percentage points better than what was happening earlier this year.  Growth from a severe recession remains slow, however, and accompanied by very low inflation.

Within the euro area, the Irish PMI reading of 54.9 was at a 30-month high, and Austria’s 52.7 constitutes a 28-month high.  The indices for Germany (51.7) and Spain (50.9) were both at 2-month highs.  But those of the Netherlands (54.4), Italy (50.7), Greece (47.3) and France (49.1) respectively represent 2-, 3-, 3- and 4-month lows.

Poland’s manufacturing PMI improved 0.3 points to 53.4, signifying the strongest rate of expansion since April 2011.  Hungary’s manufacturing PMI fell by 3.4 points, in contrast, to a 3-month low of 51.0.

The government-authorized Chinese purchasing managers index unexpectedly and encouragingly rose by 0.7 points to 56.3 in October, best since August 2012.

Retail sales in Australia grew 0.8% in September, twice as fast as forecast and the best result since February.  Sales were 2.6% higher than a year earlier.  In other Australian data released today, expected inflation remained subdued in October, edging up just 0.1% on month and keeping a 12-month pace of 2.1%.  The result was somewhat surprising in light of recently reported acceleration in actual CPI inflation last quarter.  Home prices in Australia climbed 1.9% on quarter in 3Q13 and accelerated to an on-year pace of 7.6%.  Job ads dipped 0.1% in October after edging 0.2% higher in September.

Commodity prices in New Zealand expressed in SDRs rose 1.3% in October and by 23% from October 2012.

Turkish CPI inflation eased 0.2 percentage points to 7.7% in October, but PPI inflation rose a half percentage point to 6.77%.

Romanian retail sales were 0.8% weaker than a year before in September.  Producer prices were only 0.3% higher than in September 2012.

Scheduled U.S. data releases today include factory orders and the New York PMI (a.k.a. NAPM index).  Powell and Rosengren of the Federal Reserve speak publicly.  The first of several central bank meetings this week occurs in Australia Tuesday.

Copyright 2013, Larry Greenberg.  All rights reserved.  No secondary distribution without express permission.



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