Next Week

June 28, 2013

Next week is the first one of the third calendar quarter.  Monday kicks off with the Bank of Japan’s quarterly Tankan survey of corporate business conditions and expectations.  Monday starts the Mark Carney era at the Bank of England and Lithuania’s half-year stewardship of the EU presidency. Various and sundry purchasing manager surveys — over fifty in all — will be released next week, covering manufacturing, services, and in a few cases construction.  Most of the manufacturing PMIs arrive Monday, and the bulk of the service-sector PMIs will be released Wednesday.

The second of America’s three summertime holidays, Independence Day, falls on a Thursday.  Many folks will make a four-day weekend of the occasion, but the release on Friday of the U.S. Labor Department jobs report will attract huge attention given Bernanke’s remarks about a likely wind-down of quantitative easing if labor market trends evolve as Fed officials anticipate.

Central bank interest rate meetings are planned next week at the ECB, Bank of England, Swedish Riksbank, Romanian National Bank, Reserve Bank of Australia, and Poland’s Narodowy Bank.  In the cases of Sweden, Poland, and Romania, analysts are split over whether a 25-basis point rate cut will happen.  On Thursday when the U.S. is closed, Mario Draghi presides over an ECB press conference, and BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda presents a speech.

In addition to the aforementioned Labor Dept jobs report and manufacturing and services PMI surveys, scheduled U.S. data releases include the trade deficit, the IBD/TIPP optimism index, construction spending, factory orders, auto sales, New York regional PMI (known as the NAPM index) and ADP estimate of private employment growth are being released next week, along with the weekly checks on chain store sales, mortgage applications, jobless insurance claims, energy inventories, and consumer comfort.

Besides the service-sector PMI and BOJ Tankan survey, Japan’s data calendar shows auto sales, the monetary base, labor cash earnings and the index of leading economic indicators.  Elsewhere in Asia, price data — either the CPI, PPI or both — will be announced for South Korea, Indonesia, Thailand, Taiwan and the Philippines.  Trade figures arrive for South Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand.  Hong Kong retail sales is also scheduled.

The focus in Australia will be primarily political following this past week’s intra-Labour Party leadership shake-up that returned Kevin Rudd to the post of prime minister.  However, several economic indicators are also being released, including job ads, building permits, retail sales, new home sales and the trade balance.  Both CPI and PPI data get released in Turkey.

Euroland-wide indicator releases are planned for retail sales, consumer prices, and unemployment.  Also arriving next week are German wholesale prices and industrial orders, the French trade deficit, Spanish industrial production and unemployment, Italian unemployment, and Dutch consumer prices. 

Britain has many data events on tap: M4 money, consumer credit, mortgage applications and loans, shop prices, the Halifax and Hometrack house price indices, auto sales and, most importantly, retail sales.  Swiss reserves and consumer prices, Norwegian industrial production, Czech, Romanian and Hungarian retail sales are some of the other upcoming European releases.

Canada, like the United States, releases labor statistics next Friday and trade data on Wednesday.  Brazil will be reporting trade, industrial production, and CPI data, while Mexico is releasing consumer confidence.

Copyright 2013, Larry Greenberg.  All rights reserved.  No secondary distribution without express permission.



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