Next Week

February 8, 2013

On the central banking beat, interest rate policy meetings are scheduled next week in South Korea, Sweden, Japan and Indonesia.  The Bank of England’s quarterly Inflation Report, the ECB’s monthly Bulletin, and the BOJ’s monthly economic assessment get published, and central bank chiefs from the Group of Twenty will join finance ministers to meet on February 15-16 in Moscow, where currency warfare in general and Japan’s yen policy in particular figure to top the agenda. 

Japan will be closed Monday for National Foundation Day, and many other Asian countries will be closed part of the week to observe the Chinese Lunar New Year.  Chinese markets only open on Friday.

Scheduled U.S. data feature retail sales, industrial production, consumer confidence, the U. Michigan consumer sentiment index, the NIFB index of small business sentiment, import prices, the Empire State manufacturing index, Treasury-collected capital flows, business inventories and the usual assortment of weekly observations of consumer comfort, chain store sales, energy inventories, mortgage applications and jobless insurance claims.  President Obama presents his State of the Union address to Congress and the nation on Tuesday evening.  Bullard, Lacker, Plosser and George are some of the Fed officials with scheduled speaking gigs.

Japan and the euro area both report preliminary estimates of fourth-quarter GDP next week.  The Ezone data includes an estimate for the whole currency bloc as a whole as well as for most of the individual members separately.  In addition, a number of European countries will be providing separate and more detailed reports of their GDD last quarter.

Other Japanese statistical releases next week will cover money growth, machine tool orders, corporate goods prices, the tertiary index of service-sector activity, revised industrial production, capacity usage, and consumer confidence.

Singapore retail sales and Chinese foreign direct investment are two of the other Asian data releases in the week ahead.

Other Ezone releases are industrial production and the trade balance.  Among members using the euro, Germany reports wholesale prices, and France releases trade, current account, and budget numbers.  Greece, Portugal, the Netherlands, and Spain report consumer prices.  Greek and Portuguese unemployment also arrive, as do Dutch retail sales and Portuguese trades.

It will be a big week for British inflation.  Besides the quarterly central bank Inflation Report, the government releases consumer prices, producer prices, retail prices, and the ONS house price measure (formerly known as the DCLG index).  Mark Carney, the incoming Bank of England governor as of July, speaks publicly and is bound to mention inflation targeting, which is a favorite topic of his.  British retail sales and index of leading economic indicators also are due next week. 

Switzerland, Denmark, and Norway will be releasing consumer price figures.  Switzerland’s PPI/import price index is scheduled, too, as are Norwegian GDP and trade numbers. Hungary and Poland announce CPI numbers.

Canada releases the monthly survey of manufacturing sales, orders and inventories, plus existing home sales.  Mexico reports industrial production.

From Australia, market participants will learn the latest figures on home loans, business confidence and conditions, consumer sentiment, and expected inflation.  Neighboring New Zealand is set to report on home prices, consumer confidence, food price inflation and retail sales.  South African retail sales will be another release, and so will be Turkish unemployment.

Copyright 2013, Larry Greenberg.  All rights reserved.  No secondary distribution without express permission.



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