U.S. and Canadian Labor Statistics
November 2, 2012
U.S. labor statistics in the final report before the election were better than expected.
- Nonfarm payroll jobs climbed 171K in October, 46K more than consensus estimates.
- Combined employment growth in August September was revised upward by 84K.
- The jobless rate of 7.9% remained below the psychologically important 8.0% level.
- The broadest measure of joblessness and underemployment ticked downward to 14.6% from 14.7% in both August and September.
- The labor participation rate rose two-tenths to 63.8%.
- The employment to population ratio edged a tenth percentage point higher to 58.8%.
- The 170K three-month rate of jobs growth in August-October was 66K per month better than the pace of 104K in May-July and also compared favorably against the pace of 133K per month in August-October 2011.
- Average hourly earnings remained weak.
The table below shows the October unemployment in prior presidential election years. Since 1948, such averaged 5.23% in those years when the incumbent party retained the White House and exactly a half percentage point higher at 5.73% in those years when the opposition party won the presidency (designated by an asterisk).
| 1948 | 3.7% | 1980* | 7.9% |
| 1952* | 3.0% | 1984 | 7.4% |
| 1956 | 3.9% | 1988 | 5.4% |
| 1960* | 6.1% | 1992* | 7.3% |
| 1964 | 5.1% | 1996 | 5.2% |
| 1968* | 3.4% | 2000* | 3.9% |
| 1972 | 5.6% | 2004 | 5.5% |
| 1976* | 7.7% | 2008* | 6.5% |
Canadian labor statistics were modestly softer than forecast in October, but a slowdown had been anticipated after robust reports for August and September. In those two months, jobs had climbed by 86.4K, an annualized pace of 3.0% and equivalent to a 329K per month increase in the U.S. labor market. In October, by comparison, employment rose just 1.8K as fewer part-time workers nearly offset the increase in full-time positions. The October total job increase was restrained by a rather large 16.2K drop in the agriculture sector and a loss of 9.3K utility workers.
Comparing the two labor markets, Canada’s jobless rate remained at 7.4%, a half percentage point lower than America’s. Canadian employment rose 1.3K between October 2011 and October 2012, slightly less than the 1.5% increase in U.S. jobs over that statement year. The U.S. jobless rate is 1.0 percentage points below the 8.9% October 2011 level, while Canada’s 7.4% rate is a tenth of a percentage point higher than a year ago. Canada’s labor force, up 1.4% on year, has not suffered the same kind of attrition that America’s did.
Copyright 2012, Larry Greenberg. All rights reserved. No secondary distribution without express permission.
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