U.S. Enjoyed Greatest Manufacturing Advantage over Euro Area in 22 Months
December 1, 2011
In November, America’s manufacturing purchasing managers index rose 1.9 points to 52,7, while the Euroland counterpart weakened 0.7 points to 46.4. Values above 50 signify expanding activity, and those below that level imply a contraction. The U.S. index hasn’t printed below 50 since July 2009, the first month of the present business cycle expansion. Euroland’s index has been under 50 in each of the past four reported months and lower than in the prior month for each of the last seven reports. A softer euro, which was 6.2% weaker against the dollar on average in November than last April, hasn’t yet turned America’s widening advantage in manufacturing against the euro zone.
The composition of the U.S. survey was more impressive than the 1.9-point improvement in composite index. The sub-indices for new demand and production improved by 4.3 points and 6.5 points, and both had November reading above 56.0. On the other side of the Atlantic, Greece (40.9), Spain (43.8), Italy (44.0), and the Netherlands (46.0) had worse readings than Euroland’s overall score of 46.4, which was 12.6 points below the February reading of 59.0. The two largest economies in the common currency area, Germany and France, saw their PMI readings drop by 1.1 and 1.2 points between October and November to 47.1 and 49.1. The German and French economies were the main growth engines in the first half of 2011, but their factory sectors are now contracting along with those in all the other participating Euroland nations. Euroland’s recent PMI scores suggest that it will suffer a 0.6% non-annualized contraction of GDP in the fourth quarter of 2011.
Many non-Euroland economies in Europe also reported sub-50 manufacturing PMIs today such as Britain at 47.6, Switzerland (44.8), Sweden (47.6), Norway (48.6), Poland (49.5), Hungary (47.8), the Czech Republic (48.6), and Denmark (47.7).
Mfg PMIs | U.S. | Euroland | Spread | EUR/USD |
Feb 2008 | 48.8 | 52.3 | -3.5 | 1.475 |
March | 49.0 | 52.0 | -3.0 | 1.553 |
April | 48.6 | 50.7 | -2.1 | 1.574 |
May | 49.3 | 50.6 | -1.3 | 1.555 |
June | 49.5 | 49.2 | +0.3 | 1.557 |
July | 49.5 | 47.4 | +2.1 | 1.577 |
August | 49.3 | 47.6 | +1.7 | 1.497 |
September | 43.4 | 45.0 | -1.6 | 1.437 |
October | 38.7 | 41.1 | -2.4 | 1.331 |
November | 36.6 | 35.6 | +1.0 | 1.268 |
December | 32.9 | 33.9 | -1.0 | 1.351 |
Jan 2009 | 35.6 | 34.4 | +1.2 | 1.326 |
February | 35.7 | 33.5 | +2.2 | 1.303 |
March | 36.4 | 33.9 | +2.5 | 1.306 |
April | 40.4 | 36.8 | +3.2 | 1.318 |
May | 43.2 | 40.7 | +2.5 | 1.365 |
June | 45.3 | 42.6 | +2.7 | 1.401 |
July | 49.1 | 46.3 | +2.8 | 1.409 |
August | 52.8 | 48.2 | +4.6 | 1.426 |
September | 52.4 | 49.3 | +3.1 | 1.455 |
October | 55.2 | 50.7 | +4.5 | 1.489 |
November | 53.7 | 51.2 | +2.5 | 1.491 |
December | 54.9 | 51.6 | +3.3 | 1.459 |
Jan 2010 | 58.4 | 52.4 | +6.0 | 1.409 |
February | 57.1 | 54.2 | +2.9 | 1.368 |
March | 60.4 | 56.6 | +3.8 | 1.356 |
April | 59.6 | 57.6 | +2.0 | 1.342 |
May | 57.8 | 55.8 | +2.0 | 1.255 |
June | 55.3 | 55.6 | -0.3 | 1.220 |
July | 55.1 | 56.7 | -1.6 | 1.278 |
August | 55.2 | 55.1 | +0.1 | 1.288 |
September | 55.3 | 53.7 | -0.4 | 1.308 |
October | 56.9 | 54.6 | +2.3 | 1.389 |
November | 58.2 | 55.3 | +2.9 | 1.368 |
December | 58.5 | 57.1 | +1.4 | 1.323 |
Jan 2011 | 60.8 | 57.3 | +3.5 | 1.337 |
February | 61.4 | 59.0 | +2.4 | 1.365 |
March | 61.2 | 57.5 | +3.7 | 1.400 |
April | 60.4 | 58.0 | +2.4 | 1.445 |
May | 53.5 | 54.6 | -1.1 | 1.433 |
June | 55.3 | 52.0 | +3.3 | 1.438 |
July | 50.9 | 50.4 | +0.5 | 1.423 |
August | 50.6 | 49.0 | +1.6 | 1.435 |
September | 51.6 | 48.5 | +3.1 | 1.377 |
October | 50.8 | 47.1 | +3.7 | 1.371 |
November | 52.7 | 46.4 | +6.3 | 1.356 |
Copyright 2011, Larry Greenberg. All rights reserved. No secondary distribution without express permission.
Tags: U.S manufacturing PMI