New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Suspense in Greek and Italian Politics
November 8, 2011
The dollar is unchanged overnight against the yen and euro but otherwise mixed. The U.S. currency slid by 0.5% against the Swiss franc and 0.1% versus the yuan and sterling but has risen against commodity currencies. It is up 1.5% against the kiwi, 0.5% relative to the Aussie dollar and 0.3% against the loonie. From […] More
Deeper Analysis
Some Facts About Italy
November 7, 2011
In the euro debt crisis, the spotlight is turning to Italy. Here are seven reasons to be concerned. Italian government debt as of 2010 totaled 1.84 trillion euros. That’s about three times larger than the combined debt of Greece, Ireland, and Portugal, and it’s 44% greater than the total of Spanish, Greek, Irish and Portuguese […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Tensions Intensify in Italy but Ease in Greece
November 7, 2011
Greek Prime Minister Papandreou is stepping down in favor of a temporary coalition government whose leader is yet to be named. The Unity Government will be installed tomorrow and must reaffirm allegiance to the October 27 bailout plan. Then the next EUR 8 billion loan from the EU will be received. Greek voters will elect […] More
Deeper Analysis
G20 Cannes Summit
November 6, 2011
Leaders from the Group of Twenty released an Action Plan for Growth and Jobs, with explicit country recommendations and somewhat new wording on foreign exchange policy. That statement opens with a somber assessment of world economic conditions. The global economy has entered a new and difficult phase. Global growth has weakened, downside risks have heightened, […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week
November 4, 2011
G20 leaders are meeting in Cannes, France this weekend. Central bank policy meetings are scheduled during the week in Indonesia, Britain, South Korea, South Africa, Malaysia, and Poland. U.S. clocks will turn back an hour on Sunday to standard time. This move will restore the normal time interval of five hours between London and New […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Currency Markets on a Knife Edge
November 4, 2011
The dollar and other key currency pairs face substantial two-sided risk as the moment of reckoning nears on a number of critical matters involving the euro debt crisis, the U.S. business cycle, and G20 foreign exchange policy coordination. News headlines will continue to swing the pendulum of risk aversion wildly. The week of October 28 […] More
Deeper Analysis
Europe But Not United States in Recession According to PMI Surveys
November 4, 2011
U.S. economic activity deteriorated last month in both the United States. Each region recorded a lower purchasing managers reading than in September in both manufacturing and service-sector industries. However, growth in the United States remains positive, just slower, whereas recessionary conditions intensified in Europe as attested by a third straight sub-50 reading there in manufacturing […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Watching Cannes Summit and Data Releases
November 4, 2011
Market attention today will be split between several key data releases and the G20 scramble to stop the Greek debt bomb. Investors also continue to react to yesterday’s rate cut by the ECB. Meantime, changes in the dollar are generally modest, with upticks of 0.5% against the Swissie, 0.3% vesus the loonie, and 0.1% against […] More
Central Bank Watch
Czech National Bank Flags Likely Rate Cut in December
November 3, 2011
Policymakers did not immediately follow the ECB’s cue, leaving the CNB’s two-week repo rate at a record low of 0.75%. Eight reduction from August 2008 through May 2010 slashed the key policy interest rate from 3.75% to its present level of 0.75%, where such has stayed now for a year and a half. Today’s 6-1 […] More
Central Bank Watch
Reflections on the ECB Press Conference
November 3, 2011
ECB President Draghi’s first press conference performance impressed me. His responses were expressed in a comfortable way with authority, self-confidence and strong command of the issues. Draghi thinks very quickly on his feet and knows how to express exactly what he wants to convey and do it very succinctly but not in an especially patronizing […] More
