New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Greenspan and Geithner Duke it Out in Verbal Currency Wars
November 11, 2010
With G20 leaders meeting in Seoul, South Korea, bond market strains on the euro area peripherals — Ireland, Portugal, Greece, Spain and Italy — intensified. The Irish-German ten-year spread widened past 650 basis points. ECB member Stark denied the fiscal problems of these members constitutes a euro crisis per se. Another ECB member reiterated that […] More
Deeper Analysis
Today’s U.S. and Canadian Data
November 10, 2010
Four indicators of interest were released at 13:30 GMT today: U.S. and Canadian trade figures for September, U.S. jobless insurance claims and U.S. import and export prices. The downward trend in new U.S. jobless insurance claims, a proxy for the layoff rate, has resumed after a roughly 11-month pause dating back to the autumn of […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Higher Fixed Income Yields
November 10, 2010
The 10-year British gilt yield jumped another 11 basis points. Comparable German bund and Japanese JGB yields are up six and two basis points, and so are Treasury future yields. Irish 10-year yields advanced for a twelfth session in a row, bringing their premium versus bunds to nearly 580 basis points. Irish yields were 171 […] More
Deeper Analysis
Gold’s Magical Climb
November 9, 2010
The relentless rise of gold prices has caught the market’s imagination. The advance is being fed by a weakening U.S. dollar, bloated paper debt around the world, Fed quantitative easing and fear that debt monetization could create a big inflation problem in the future. Current inflation is very subdued and still trending lower in many […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
One-Day Dollar Correction Out of Steam
November 9, 2010
The dollar had opened firmer this week on Monday and strengthened further overnight to 1.3824 per euro, but it relapsed subsequently to 1.3951 currently, a net slide of 0.2% since yesterday’s New York closing. The dollar also shows net overnight losses of 0.6% against the Swissy, 0.7% versus the yen, and 0.3% against sterling and […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Euro Falters on Irish Budget Concerns
November 8, 2010
The dollar rose 0.9% against the euro, 0.6% versus the Swiss franc, 1.1% against the New Zealand kiwi, and 0.4% against the Canadian dollar and sterling. The dollar is also 0.5% and 0.3% lower against the Australian dollar and Japanese yen but unchanged relative to the Chinese yuan. Press reports over the weekend observed many […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week
November 5, 2010
The main event in the week to November 12 will be the summit of G20 leaders in Seoul on Thursday and Friday. The U.S. and Canadian markets respectively observe Veterans Day and Remembrance Day commemorating the Armistice that ended the First World War 92 years ago. Sweden is closed on Tuesday. On November 7, Greece […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Will the G20 Summit Stop the Falling Dollar?
November 5, 2010
The dollar is being depressed by a U.S. monetary policy that is looser than the credit policies of other central banks. Since August 27 when Fed Chairman Bernanke began preparing the public for a second round of quantitative easing, the dollar has lost over 10% against the Australian and New Zealand dollars, and commodity prices […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Awaiting U.S. Jobs Report
November 5, 2010
A mildly firmer dollar reflects posturing ahead of this week’s final big event, not any lessening of cynicism over U.S. dollar policy. Nowotny of the ECB observed the obvious fact that the Fed and ECB monetary policies are becoming more divergent. The dollar is 0.7% stronger against the kiwi and sterling and up 0.5% versus […] More
Deeper Analysis
October PMI Results Favor United States Over Euro Zone
November 4, 2010
Purchasing managers survey results were more U.S.-advantageous in October than September and in September than August. The sum of the U.S. minus Euroland manufacturing and services spreads, shown in the right-most column of the table below, was +3.3 in October after minus 0.2 in September and minus 3.2 points in August. Much of this change […] More
