Next Week

October 1, 2010

A new calendar quarter, a new U.S. Federal fiscal year, and the start of the second half of Japan’s fiscal year beckon.

China and Germany have similar important holidays at the start of October.  Chinese markets will be closed Monday through Thursday to commemorate the 61st anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic.  On Sunday, October 3, Germans will be celebrating the 20th anniversary of the reunification of what used to be East and West Germany.  Since Unity Day falls on a weekend, there will be no market interruption.  IMF meetings will be held late next week.  Before currency coordination was transferred from the Group of Seven to the Group of Twenty, G-7 finance ministers and central bankers would release statements at these occasions.  The G-20 isn’t meeting at this time, and the G-7 doesn’t release communiques anymore.  The U.S. Treasury market will close early Friday for the Columbus Day weekend holiday but not before the release of September U.S. Labor statistics.

Central banks in Japan, Australia, the U.K., Euroland, the Philippines, Peru, and Indonesia hold interest rate meetings next week.  In most instances, there will not be any policy changes.  BOJ policymakers are under great pressure to stimulate in a quantitative way and may announce new measures.  Analysts are split about whether the Reserve Bank of Australia resumes its rate tightening and more unified in expecting Peru’s benchmark rate to be raised.  Officials at the Bank of England, as at the Fed, have been giving more attention to whether the British economy needs more quantitative easing but are more likely to act in November than October.  Shirakawa of the BOJ and Trichet of the ECB hold press conferences.  Note that Trichet’s eight-year term as ECB president expires one year from now.

Non-manufacturing purchasing manager survey results for a wide range of economies — Euroland, Germany, France, Italy, Singapore, Ireland, Russia, China, Hong Kong, Australia, Britain, Japan, Spain, Canada and the United States, for example, get released next week, mostly on Tuesday.

Besides the PMI-services and the labor force survey, the U.S. reports pending home sales, factory orders, consumer credit, the JOLTS index, September chain store sales, wholesale inventories, the ADP private jobs estimate and the usual weekly figures on jobless claims, chain store sales, consumer confidence, mortgage applications, and energy stocks. 

Staying in the western hemisphere, Canada releases building permits, labor statistics, and results from the central bank’s senior loan officer and business outlook surveys.  Mexico, Brazil, and Chile announce CPI data.

PPI, retail sales and final GDP figures for Euroland are scheduled.  German industrial orders, industrial production and trade figures are also arriving, as are Dutch industrial output and French trade and budget reports.

Britain has a heavy data that includes both purchasing manager results for both services and construction, the NIESR GDP growth estimate for September (and hence 3Q), same store retail sales, three house price measures (Halifax, DCLG, and RICs), new car registrations, producer prices, and industrial production.  Swiss unemployment and consumer prices, Swedish industrial output and orders, and Norwegian industrial production are due, too.

Australia releases job ads, business confidence and conditions, retail sales and the monthly labor force survey.  New Zealand’s commodity price index is scheduled, and so are Turkish consumer prices, producer prices, and industrial output.

Japan’s slate of indicators getting released next week features the current account, settlements trade balance, machine tool orders, economy watchers index, the monetary base, the index of leading economic indicators, and wage earnings.  Hong Kong releases retail sales, and Taiwanese consumer prices, South Korean money growth, and Malaysian trade figures appear as well. 

In this big week for news on industrial production, the Czech Republic, Romania, and Hungary each release that statistic.  Hungarian and Czech trade data and Romanian and Czech retail sales  arrive as well.

Copyright Larry Greenberg 2010.  All rights reserved.  No secondary distribution without express permission.


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