Next Week

August 13, 2010

Next week will be much quieter than the past one.  No top tier and few overall central bank meetings are scheduled.  Those in Turkey, Colombia and Mexico are expected to keep existing rate levels.  Minutes from the Bank of England’s August meeting will be examined to see if Andrew Sentance cast a hawkish dissent for a third straight time.  He is very unlikely to be joined by anyone else, since the majority has drifted toward a more dovish bias.  The week lies in the heart of Europe’s summer holiday break.  Currency market history buffs may wish to know that Sunday, August 15 marks the 39th anniversary of the severing of dollar-gold convertibility, which was the precursor to the floating exchange rate era.  The 15th fell on a Sunday in 1971 as well.

Japanese second-quarter GDP, British industrial output and retail sales, and U.S. industrial production are the most significant data releases in an otherwise lean week.

Japan also releases the tertiary index, which tracks service-sector activity, the all industry index, and the index of leading Japanese indicators.

Other U.S. reports will be the Philly and New York Fed manufacturing indices, producer prices, housing starts, the National Association of Home Builders index, the index of leading economic indicators, Treasury TIC data on capital flows, and the assorted weekly data on jobless insurance claims, energy inventories, mortgage applications, chain store sales, and consumer confidence.

In addition to the aforementioned U.K. retail sales and industrial production reports, followers of the British economy will get to see M4 growth, public finances, consumer prices and the latest CPI survey of business conditions.  Norway reports the trade balance and GDP, while Swedish unemployment, capacity use, trades and home prices are due as well.

In the euro area as a whole, consumer prices, the current account and the ZEW gauge of investor sentiment arrive.  The most widely watched ZEW index is for the German economy alone, where producer prices are also due.  The Netherlands and Belgium report on consumer sentiment.

Producer prices will be released in both the Czech Republic and Poland.  Poland also reports industrial production figures.

Scheduled Canadian data include consumer prices, the monthly survey of manufacturers, existing home sales, wholesale sales, and the index of leading economic indicators.  Mexico releases GDP, while Colombia reports both retail sales and industrial output.

In non-Japan Asia, India announces wholesale prices, Hong Kong and Malaysia release consumer prices, Malaysia publishes GDP.  Turkish consumer sentiment and unemployment are scheduled.

Australia reports auto sales and quarterly labor costs, while New Zealand chimes in with producer prices.  South African retail sales arrive Wednesday.

Copyright Larry Greenberg 2010.  All rights reserved.  No secondary distribution without express permission.


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