Next Week

June 25, 2010

Wednesday will mark the end of a quarter and the mid-point of 2010.  Canada celebrates Canada on Thursday, and dealing rooms will close early on Friday in the U.S. for the Independence Day weekend.  A Swedish interest rate hike is expected on Thursday.  Monetary policy meetings in Romania, Israel and Poland probably will not result in changes. G-20 leaders in Toronto for the next two days will likely issue a statement of platitudes but lacking concrete actions.  While the G-20 captures a much more significant economic and political slice of the world, the difficulties of consensus building magnifies exponentially as the size of a group expands, and this is a three-fold increase from the G-7.  World Cup soccer from South Africa will continue to preoccupy the main attention in many trading rooms.

The cusp between months tends to have a heavy flow of data releases.  For one thing, Japan releases a deluge of figures in the final week each month, and then the first of every month sees the release of manufacturing purchasing managers indices for about 25 economies.

Scheduled U.S. releases include personal income and consumption, consumer confidence, pending home sales, motor vehicle sales, construction spending, the Dallas Fed index, and factory orders.  There are also weekly figures for chain store sales, mortgage applications, energy stocks, consumer confidence and jobless insurance claims.  Before the manufacturing PMI index, investors will learn results of mid-western PMI surveys.  But all this information will be subordinate to the labor market numbers, the aforementioned claims on Thursday, the ADP estimate of private sector job creation on Wednesday and the labor department labor force release, which is at the usual Friday time, not Thursday in spite of the holiday weekend.

The list of Japanese releases in addition to the PMI has retail sales, unemployment and employment, real household spending, housing starts, construction orders, small business sentiment, auto production and sales, the monetary base and wage earnings.  Just as the U.S. labor report will command special attention in this crowded week, the Bank of Japan’s quarterly corporate survey, known as the Tankan, will play a similar role in Japan’s case.

Euroland reports manufacturing PMIs, money growth, consumer prices, producer prices, unemployment and economic, consumer and business sentiment.  Germany will release statistics on the labor market, retail sales, and consumer prices.  France announces consumer confidence and producer prices, and Italy announces business sentiment, the CPI and the PPI.  Belgium and Spain will report preliminary consumer price indications for June.

Britain releases a PMI index for both manufacturing and construction.  The Hometrack and Nationwide house price indices are each due.  Figures on mortgage approvals, consumer credit, and M4 plus the Bank of England’s credit conditions will update knowledge about housing and the financial markets.  A final GDP estimate will be accompanied by figures on the quarterly British current account.

Sweden releases trades, retail sales and wage figures, while Switzerland chimes in with its index of leading economic indicators and the UBS consumption index. Norway reports retail sales.

From Australia will come skilled job vacancies, new home sales and building permits, and New Zealand will publish business sentiment, money growth, and the commodity price index.  Turkey releases GDP and trades, and South Africa reports money and credit, trades and auto sales.

Canadian releases are limited to monthly GDP and producer prices.  Brazil announces industrial production and consumer prices.

In Asia, industrial production will be released by South Korea and Thailand, trade figures by India, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, and South Korea, consumer prices by Indonesia and Thailand, and the current account by Hong Kong and South Korea.

Copyright Larry Greenberg 2010.  All rights reserved.  No secondary distribution without express permission.



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