World Growth Between 2007 and 2010

October 1, 2009

The global recession has seen a big narrowing of the gap between advanced economies and emerging ones according to new IMF actual and projected figures.  The International Monetary Fund expects world GDP to expand 3.1% next year, a tenth more than such did in 2008 and a 4.2 percentage point improvement from an expected 1.1% contraction in the current calendar year.  The cumulative net rise of GDP between 2007 and 2010 would then be 5.0%.

Within that 5.0% net advance of world GDP over three years, advanced economies are projected to contract 1.6%, while the gross domestic product of emerging economies is expected to climb by 13.3%.

  • The IMF expects the members of the Group of Seven to have lower real GDP in 2010 than 2007.  The implicit declines range from a mere 0.1% for Canada to 0.8% in the United States, 2.9% in Great Britain, 3.2% in the euro area, and 4.5% for Japan.
  • Among emerging economies, the dispersion in cumulative growth is even wider than for emerging economies as a whole compared to advanced economies.  The growth rate among Eastern and Central European nations is itself marginally negative at minus 0.4%.  Sub-Sahara African GDP is seen climbing 11.3%, and Developing Asian growth would expand by 22.6% between 2007 and 2010. 
  • Within the BRIC bloc of nations (China, Russia, India, and China), there is likewise a large disparity of outcomes.  China expands by 28.9%, 30.5 percentage points greater than advanced economies as a whole.  India is seen growing by 20.3%.  Next comes Brazil with a three-year cumulative expansion of 8.0%, and finally Russian GDP is expected to contract 0.9%.

The Great Recession has hammered commercial trade.  World export volumes would still be 7.0% lower in 2010 than in 2007. It is interesting to see a period of falling international trade being associated with a narrowing GDP gap between the most developed economies and everybody else.  Conventional wisdom has suggested that trade wars would hit the less developed economies the hardest.

Copyright Larry Greenberg 2009.  All rights reserved.  No secondary distribution without express permission.


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