U.S. International Capital Flow Data Rarely Timely
August 18, 2008
The usefulness of measured U.S. capital movements is impeded by their lack of timeliness. The most accurate and comprehensive information from the Commerce Department are released only quarterly and arrive in the final month of the following quarter. Monthly data from the Treasury Department contain more recent information but all too often are still out […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
New Developments Abroad: Pakistani Stocks Soar 4.5% After Musharraf Resigns
August 18, 2008
The dollar fell 0.9% against the kiwi, 0.7% relative to the Australian dollar, 0.4% against sterling, and 0.3% against the euro and yen. The Fed is seen raising rates later rather than sooner. Bernanke speaks Friday at Jackson Hole annual symposium. The Nikkei rose 1.1%, but stocks fell 5.5% in China, 2.7% in Taiwan, and […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Foreign Exchange Insights: August 15th
August 15, 2008
The dollar experienced another very strong week, reflecting increasing pessimism about other economies. Dollar strength and commodity price weakness were both cause and effect to one another. Although Russia’s incursion into Georgia underscored the limitations of U.S. diplomatic and military power, Europe and not the United States was put in greater economic and geopolitical peril, […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
New Developments Abroad: Gold Down Sharply as Dollar Extends Recovery
August 15, 2008
Gold hit an intra-day low of $787.1 per ounce and is off 2.7% on balance today and down some 24% from its mid-March record high. Silver fell even more sharply today than gold. Copper is way down as well. Commodity weakness and dollar strength are reinforcing one another. Dollar uptrend continues to feed off weaker […] More
Currency Markets in the News
Ezone Versus U.S. Consumer Price Inflation
August 14, 2008
Consumer prices in the United States rose 5.6% in the 12 months to July compared to their increase of 4.0% in the euro area. That 1.6 percentage point (ppt) differential compares to spreads of 0.6 ppt in the year to July 2007, 1.7 ppts in the year to July 2006, 1.0 ppt in the year […] More
Currency Markets in the News
2Q Growth Negative in Euroland
August 14, 2008
Real GDP among countries using the euro fell 0.2% not annualized last quarter. Such was the first contraction since at least 1995 for this Bloc and reduced on-year growth to 1.5% from 2.1% in 1Q08 and 2.7% in 3Q07 when the global economic problems began. Quarterly growth was in the red for Germany (-0.5%), France […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
New Developments Abroad: Euroland Growth Fell 0.2% in 2Q As Expected
August 14, 2008
The dollar is mixed, with gains of 0.2% against the yen, Swissy and kiwi and of 0.1% against the euro, but drops of 0.3% against the Australian dollar and 0.1% relative to sterling. The Canadian dollar is unchanged. Stocks in India (-2.4%) and Japan (-0.5%) are lower, whereas the British Ftse (1.4%), Paris Cac (1.1%) […] More
Russian Aggression and The Dollar
August 13, 2008
Extremely high policy-induced U.S. interest rates, a ballooning Washington deficit and a sharp break in America’s inflation fever were the main dollar supports during President Reagan’s first term. An important background factor, however, was a big anxiety premium from increasingly strained East-West and North-South relations. An image of U.S. military ineptitude and foreign policy appeasement […] More
Currency Markets in the News
Euroland Industrial Production Sank 2.5% saar Last Quarter
August 13, 2008
Forecasts centered on a 0.8% decline of Euroland GDP at an annualized rate might be too conservative. June industrial production released today revealed a 2.5% drop last quarter and put the level of production at the end of the quarter already down 0.6% (not annualized) from the 2Q mean. For June alone, industrial output was […] More
Currency Markets in the News
Japanese 2Q GDP Dissected: Bad All Over
August 13, 2008
Real GDP plunged 2.4% at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (saar) last quarter, the largest decline since 3Q01, when the 9-11 attacks occurred. Although such followed a solid 3.2% increase in the first quarter, the occurrence of negative growth should not be dismissed as an offset to earlier strength. Economic growth in 1Q08 and 4Q07 […] More
