Looking Ahead to This Week’s Coming Events
October 27, 2026
Financial markets have been choppy today as a number of potential market movers lie just ahead:
- Israel’s parliamentary election today represents a crossroads in the nation’s international image.
- From the what-else-is-new-department, there’s been conflicting chatter regarding the conflict in Iran. A rare publicized comment from the enigmatic new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei calling for an end to the current situation of “neither war nor peace” hints at a willingness to engage in renewed diplomacy, but Israel and the U.S. seem to be chomping for renewed attacks as soon as their elections are settled.
- Putin wants a role in any talks to reshape boundary lines.
- Today is the opening day of the FOMC meeting. A no-rate change announcement is expected tomorrow. Attention will be keenly fixed on Warsh’s press conference afterward.
- Interest rate announcements later in the week from the Bank of Japan and European Central Bank are also expected to keep the status quo but to dangle the likelihood of tightenings before yearend.
- The first estimate of third quarter U.S. GDP growth arrives Thursday along with the separate release that day of September personal income, personal consumption expenditures and, most importantly, the PCE price deflator.
- Euro area GDP for last quarter and a wide range other European and Japanese statistics are also due late this week.
The dollar drifted upward overnight by 0.3% against the peso, euro and on a weighted basis, by 0.2% relative to the yen, won and sterling, and 0.1% against the Swiss franc.
Ten-year sovereign debt yields have risen four basis points in France and a basis point in Japan and Italy. Declines have occurred of three bps in Germany, two bps in the United States, U.K. and Canada and a single basis point in Australia and Spain.
Stock markets are benefiting from renewed confidence in AI following news of a likely Anthropic IPO in the second half of next month. While Japan’s Nikkei-225 index and the South Korean Kospi advanced 1.7% and 3.1%, other Pac Basin stock markets closed down by 2.0% in Indonesia, 1.3% in China, and 0.4% in New Zealand following that country’s 3-day weekend. Stock markets in Euroland and U.S. equity futures have strengthened moderately, while Britain’s FTSE is down by 0.8% currently.
For the second time this week, oil prices are flashing red today, this time by 1.0% on Brent and 0.8% in West Texas Intermediate’s case. Silver has fallen 1.3%, which gold is down by a minimal amount.
Heavy U.S. business investment spending doesn’t seem to be letting up. A bounceback of 1.8% in durable goods orders last month following August’s uptick of only 0.1% exceeded analyst expectations. Non-defense capital goods orders rose 0.5% on month and were 10.9% greater on average over the first three quarters of 2026 than their year-earlier level. Residential construction, on the other hand, has been laboring under the weight of elevated long-term interest rates. That said, year-on-year house price inflation measured by August’s FHFA index (+2.4% and 2.5% in July) and Case-Shiller index (2.7% following 2.5%) was somewhat above expectations.
France’s economy had the additional burden of broadening and more violent street protests. French consumer confidence dropped by five index points to a 160-month low of 80 in October. That’s nine points below the pandemic nadir of 89 touched in May 2020 and well south of the 105 reading in mid-2021. The 100 level of this index represents its long-term average score.
Finnish consumer sentiment sank to a 5-month low of -9.7 this month from -4.9 in September and a 55-month high of -3.0 in August.
South Korean consumer confidence which so far in 2026 has ranged between 112.1 in February and 99.2 in April, declined 1.2 points to a 2-month low of 105.4 in October. South Korean GDP growth in the third quarter was also announced today and exceeded expectations with quarter-on-quarter growth of 1.0% after 0.6% in 2Q and a year-on-year comparison of 3.4%. The 3.6% year-on-year growth averaged so far this year exceeds calendar year growth each year between 2022 and 2025.
Japanese corporate service price inflation accelerated to a 27-month high of 3.7% in September but was not very different from the 3.5% average in the three prior months.
Chinese corporate earnings, which only rose 0.6% during 2025, increased by an average of 15.5% over the first three quarters of 2026.
British shop price inflation of 2.1% in October was the most in 32 months and twice as much as experienced in October 2025.
Irish wholesale price inflation in September of 7.4% was its highest in 47 months and up from 6.5% in August and sub-zero percent territory from February 2025 through March 2026.
The National Bank of Kyrgyzstan’s policy interest rate was kept at 12.0% after this week’s review. It’s been at 12% since a full percentage point rate hike last February and 300 basis points of tightening that began in July 2025. Consumer price inflation of 10.8% in October remained in double-digits following September’s 42-month high of 12.2%. That’s significantly above the central bank’s inflation objective range of 5-7%. In light of “changes in the price environment in global food and commodity markets amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East,” a tight monetary stance continues to be warranted.
Copyright 2026, Larry Greenberg. All rights reserved.
Tags: Israeli election today, National Bank of Kyrgyzstan, South Korean GDP and consumer confidence
ShareThis
