Greatest U.S. Manufacturing Advantage Over Euro Area in 11 Months
April 1, 2020
The U.S. ISM-compiled manufacturing purchasing managers index fell 1.0 points to a 3-month low of 49.1 in March. However, Euroland’s IHS-compiled PMI dropped by a much greater 4.7 points to a 92-month low and, as a result, America’s comparative advantage– calculated by subtracting the Ezone score from the U.S. reading — increased by 3.7 points to an 11-month high of 4.6 points.
The deterioration of U.S. factory conditions was understates because of a big positive 7.7-point rise in supplier delivery times. The production, demand, and employment components, in contrast, fell by 2.6, 7.6, and 3.1 points, and prices fell sharply as attested by that component’s big distance below 50 at 37.4. IHS also compiles a manufacturing PMI for the United States, and it fell 2.2 points to 48.5 in March.
Only one of Euroland’s member nations had a March manufacturing PMI above 50, signifying favorable conditions last month. That was the Netherlands, whose score of 50.5 signifies very modest improvement. The other seven reporting countries recorded PMIs ranging from Italy’s 131-month low of 40.3 to Austria’s 5-month low of 45.8. Germany, which until February, had Euroland’s lowest manufacturing PMI, jumped from eighth place in the pecking order all the way up to fourth place last month with a 2-month low of 45.4.
The evolution of the U.S. and euro area PMI trends from March levels will be wholly dependent upon the path taken by the Covid-19 pandemic. It’s very unclear how many weeks or months go by before the infection is brought under control, and there may be a trade-off between limiting how many lives are ultimately lost and how long it takes before significant improvement back to normality can be secured with confidence. Even if new infection rates and death rates peak within 2-3 weeks, it could be premature to ease back on social distancing for quite some time longer. Moreover, easing restrictions probably will not elicit commensurate improvement in the confidence of consumers to shop and engage in other activities with lots of social contact, nor will businesses be quickly chomping at the bit to undertake capital expenditures. So in the near term, economic conditions will reflect the pandemic, and any subsequent improvement in PMI’s probably will lag documented containment of the virus.
| Mfg PMIs | U.S. | Euroland | Spread | EUR/USD |
| Jan 2013 | 53.1 | 47.9 | +5.2 | 1.330 |
| February | 53.1 | 47.9 | +5.2 | 1.334 |
| March | 51.5 | 46.8 | +4.7 | 1.295 |
| April | 50.0 | 46.7 | +3.3 | 1.301 |
| May | 50.0 | 48.3 | +1.7 | 1.299 |
| June | 52.5 | 48.8 | +3.7 | 1.319 |
| July | 54.9 | 50.3 | +4.6 | 1.309 |
| August | 56.3 | 51.4 | +4.9 | 1.331 |
| September | 56.0 | 51.1 | +4.9 | 1.335 |
| October | 56.6 | 51.3 | +5.3 | 1.364 |
| November | 57.0 | 51.6 | +5.4 | 1.349 |
| December | 56.5 | 52.7 | +3.8 | 1.370 |
| Jan 2014 | 51.3 | 54.0 | -2.7 | 1.361 |
| February | 54.3 | 53.2 | +1.1 | 1.366 |
| March | 54.4 | 53.0 | +1.4 | 1.380 |
| April | 55.3 | 53.4 | +1.9 | 1.380 |
| May | 55.6 | 52.2 | +3.4 | 1.374 |
| June | 55.7 | 51.8 | +3.9 | 1.360 |
| July | 56.4 | 51.8 | +4.6 | 1.354 |
| August | 58.1 | 50.7 | +7.4 | 1.332 |
| September | 56.1 | 50.3 | +5.8 | 1.290 |
| October | 57.9 | 50.6 | +7.3 | 1.268 |
| November | 57.6 | 50.1 | +7.5 | 1.247 |
| December | 55.1 | 50.6 | +4.5 | 1.232 |
| Jan 2015 | 53.5 | 51.0 | +2.5 | 1.162 |
| February | 53.3 | 51.0 | +2.3 | 1.135 |
| March | 52.3 | 52.2 | +0.1 | 1.083 |
| April | 51.6 | 52.0 | -0.4 | 1.081 |
| May | 53.1 | 52.2 | +0.9 | 1.116 |
| June | 53.1 | 52.5 | +0.6 | 1.123 |
| July | 51.9 | 52.4 | -0.5 | 1.101 |
| August
September October |
51.0
50.0 49.4 |
52.3
52.0 52.3 |
-1.3
-2.0 -2.9 |
1.114
1.123 1.121 |
| November
December Jan 2016 February March April May June July August September October November December Jan 2017 February March April May June July August September October November December Jan 2018 February March April May June July August September October November December Jan 2019 February March April May June July August September October November December January February March |
48.4
48.0 48.2 49.7 51.7 50.7 51.0 52.8 52.8 49.4 51.7 52.0 53.5 54.5 56.0 57.6 56.8 55.3 55.5 56.7 56.5 59.3 60.2 58.5 58.2 59.3 59.1 60.7 59.3 57.9 58.7 60.0 58.4 60.8 59.5 57.5 58.8 54.3 56.6 54.2 55.3 52.8 52.1 51.7 51.2 49.1 47.8 48.3 48.1 47.4 50.9 50.1 49.1
|
52.8
53.2 52.3 51.2 51.6 51.7 51.5 52.8 52.0 51.7 52.6 53.5 53.7 54.9 55.2 55.4 56.2 56.7 57.0 57.4 56.6 57.4 58.1 58.5 60.1 60.6 59.6 58.6 56.6 56.2 55.5 54.9 55.1 54.6 53.2 52.0 51.8 51.4 50.5 49.3 47.5 47.9 47.7 47.6 46.5 47.0 45.7 45.9 46.9 46.3 47.9 49.2 44.5
|
-4.4
-4.8 -4.1 -1.5 +0.1 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 +0.8 -2.3 -0.9 -1.5 -0.2 -0.4 +0.8 +2.2 +0.6 -1.4 -1.5 -0.7 -0.1 +1.9 +2.1 0.0 -1.9 -1.3 -0.5 +2.1 +2.7 +1.7 +3.2 +5.1 +3.3 +6.2 +6.3 +5.5 +7.0 +2.9 +6.1 +4.9 +7.8 +4.9 +4.4 +4.1 +4.7 +2.1 +2.1 +2.4 +1.2 +1.1 +3.0 +0.9 +4.6 |
1.076
1.090 1.087 1.111 1.114 1.134 1.130 1.124 1.106 1.120 1.121 1.103 1.078 1.054 1.063 1.064 1.069 1.072 1.106 1.124 1.153 1.182 1.191 1.176 1.174 1.184 1.220 1.234 1.234 1.227 1.181 1.167 1.169 1.155 1.166 1.148 1.136 1.138 1.142 1.135 1.130 1.123 1.118 1.130 1.121 1.112 1.101 1.106 1.105 1.111 1.110 1.091 1.105 |
Copyright 2020, Larry Greenberg. All rights reserved. No secondary distribution without express permission.
Tags: Manufacturing PMIs, U.S. and Euroland manufacturing conditions
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