Japanese Companies More Worried According to BOJ Tankan Survey
December 14, 2011
10,846 companies participated in the latest quarterly survey done by Japan’s central bank. In the table below which documents the evolution of results, abbreviations used in the first four columns of data stand for big manufacturers (Bm), big non-manufacturer (Bnm), small manufacturers (Sm) and small non-manufacturers (Smn). Where an “a” or no suffix is shown after the date, the figures are actual results. An “f” suffix after December 2011 and March 2012 represents predicted results made three months before those respective dates. Thus, the bottom three rows are expected December 2011 results projected in the September 2011 survey (Dec 2011f), actual results of the December 2011 survey reported today (Dec 2011a), and what respondents in the latest survey think the results will be in the next survey to be taken in March 2012. The values in this table are diffusion indices showing the percent of companies where conditions are favorable minus the percent claiming conditions to be unfavorable and omitting any firms where conditions have seemed neutral. When the diffusion index is positive, there is more optimism than pessimism, but no group’s index is seen exceeding zero at the end of winter.
Manufacturers engaged in a lot of exporting are straining under the weight of the yen’s persistent strength. The big manufacturers current reading of minus 4 is eight percentage points(ppts) more bearish than predicted three months ago and two ppts weaker than recent street estimates. Medium-sized manufacturers were also more bearish than predicted. In other instances, where companies felt better than now than they did in September or than they then expected to feel at this time, the improvement is expected to be fleeting. Indeed, every classification of survey participant has a weaker predicted diffusion index in March 2012 than the actual index in December 2011.
Furthermore, product supply and product inventories are more excessive now than in September. Price pressure is more deflationary. Projected sales and planned investment spending in the present fiscal year ending March have each been scaled back, and the prognosis for corporate earnings is not as favorable as it looked in September. Large manufacturers then had anticipated a 2.3% rise of profits and now foresee a drop of 6.7%. All firms collectively project a 4.8% decline in earnings, a revision from a projected 2.4% decreased anticipated at the time of the September Tankan survey.
| Bm | Bnm | Sm | Snm | All | |
| Dec 1998 | -49 | -39 | -56 | -43 | |
| Dec 1999 | -17 | -19 | -32 | -28 | |
| Dec 2000 | 10 | -10 | -16 | -23 | |
| Dec 2001 | -38 | -22 | -49 | -39 | -40 |
| Dec 2002 | -9 | -16 | -33 | -36 | -28 |
| Dec 2003 | 11 | -9 | -13 | -28 | -15 |
| Dec 2004 | 22 | 11 | 5 | -14 | 1 |
| Dec 2005 | 21 | 17 | 7 | -17 | 5 |
| Dec 2006 | 25 | 22 | 12 | -4 | 10 |
| Dec 2007 | 19 | 16 | 2 | -12 | 2 |
| Mar 2008 | 11 | 12 | -6 | -15 | -4 |
| Jun 2008 | 5 | 10 | -10 | -20 | -7 |
| Sep 2008 | -3 | 1 | -17 | -24 | -14 |
| Dec 2008 | -24 | -9 | -29 | -29 | -24 |
| Mar 2009 | -58 | -31 | -57 | -42 | -46 |
| Jun 2009 | -48 | -29 | -57 | -44 | -45 |
| Sep 2009 | -33 | -24 | -52 | -39 | -38 |
| Dec 2009 | -25 | -21 | -41 | -34 | -31 |
| Mar 2010 | -14 | -14 | -30 | -31 | -24 |
| Jun 2010 | 1 | -5 | -18 | -26 | -15 |
| Sep 2010 | 8 | 2 | -14 | -21 | -10 |
| Dec 2010 | 5 | 1 | -12 | -22 | -11 |
| Mar 2011 | 6 | 3 | -10 | -19 | -9 |
| Jun 2011 | -9 | -5 | -21 | -26 | -18 |
| Sep 2011 | 2 | 1 | -11 | -19 | -9 |
| Dec 2011f | 4 | 1 | -12 | -22 | -11 |
| Dec 2011a | -4 | 4 | -8 | -14 | -7 |
| Mar 2012f | -5 | 0 | -17 | -21 | -13 |
Copyright Larry Greenberg 2011. All rights reserved. No secondary distribution without express permission.
Tags: Tankan corporate survey
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