Service sector PMIs

Two Games of Chicken and an Uncertain U.S. Election Unnerving Investors

November 5, 2018

Chinese President Xi Jinping did not budge from his previous posture on trade, throwing cold water on U.S. President Trump’s pre-weekend comments that much progress had been made to defuse the trade war. In response, equity markets in the Pacific Rim slumped today by 1.8% in Hong Kong and Singapore, 1.6% in Japan, 0.9% in […] More

Tuesday’s Resilience in U.S. Stocks Doesn’t Prevent More Weakness in Asian and European Share Prices Today

September 5, 2018

Global investors are nervous for several reasons: Emerging market economies squeezed by trade tensions and Fed tightening. The possibility of a U.S. government shutdown over Trump’s insistence on funding for a Mexican border wall. A new book depicting the Trump Administration on the verge of a nervous breakdown. Unresolved geopolitical hot spots. Seasonal concerns. In […] More

Service Sector PMI Surveys and U.S. Jobs Data

August 3, 2018

The U.S. Labor Department’s July jobs and wage data will be released shortly. Investors are already digesting PMI data reported overnight. Euroland’s composite purchasing managers survey (comprising both manufacturing and service sector activities) dropped back to a 2-month low of 54.3 in July from a 4-month high in June of 54.9. The services PMI had […] More

Lack of U.S. Leadership on This Independence Day Depresses Market Action

July 4, 2018

The dollar is unchanged against the yen, kiwi and loonie, up 0.2% relative to the euro and 0.1% versus the Swiss franc and Aussie dollar, and down by 0.1% vis-a-vis sterling and the yuan. Stocks in Europe are down 0.4% in Germany and Italy, 0.3% in the U.K., and 0.1% in France. Asia saw some […] More

Non-Manufacturing U.S.-Minus-Euroland PMI Spread

May 5, 2018

The U.S. non-manufacturing purchasing index-minus-euro area services PMI was cut nearly in half to +2.1 in April, a three month low. The U.S. index dropped 2.0 points to 56.8, led by reductions of 1.5 and 3.0 points in sales/business activity and employment. Euroland’s services PMI fell just 0.2 points to 54.7. The Irish and French […] More

The Fickle Nature of Investor Anxiety about a Trade War

April 5, 2018

Flip-flopping attitudes about the likelihood of a full-fledged intensifying trade war between China and the United States continues to be a big source of day-to-day changes in market behavior. There was panic earlier this week. Today, investors believe Trump and Jinping will negotiate a truce and forestall a trade meltdown. One problem with such optimism […] More

Sino-U.S. Trade Dispute Evolves Into Deeper Conflict and Rattles Markets

April 4, 2018

As a presidential candidate, Trump prioritized the U.S. trade imbalance, which he blamed on unfair practices of America’s trading partners. But as president, he acted initially on many other issues, while doing little about trade. Then came the U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum, which by themselves affected only a sliver of commerce. A month […] More

Second Thoughts About Trade

March 5, 2018

U.S. equities turned higher at mid-day on lessening worries about a trade war. Republicans in Congress do not support President Trump’s desire to impose big tariffs on steel and aluminum. Some investors believe the threat is a political negotiating ploy that will not happen and will not trigger a trade war. Reported PMI indices today […] More

Global Equity Correction Extended

February 5, 2018

The unprecedentedly harsh Federal Reserve sanctions announced Friday against Wells Fargo Bank injected fresh impetus to last week’s global correction in share prices. So did a further basis point rise in the 10-year Treasury yield. Equities fell today by 2.6% in Japan, 1.6% in Australia and Taiwan, 2.1% in New Zealand, 0.9% in India and […] More

Leaping Equities

January 4, 2018

The spirited surge in equities was extended in overnight trading, with Japan’s first session of the new year posting a 741-point or 3.3% rise in the Nikkei-225 index. Share prices also climbed 1.1% in Singapore, 0.8% in Hong Kong, 0.7% in Indonesia and 0.5% in India and China. With the baton passing to Europe, stocks […] More