North Korea Observes America’s Birthday with a Successful ICBM Test

July 4, 2017

Today is the 241st anniversary of the signing of the U.S. Declaration of Independence. We, therefore, the Representatives of the united States of America, in General Congress, Assembled, appealing to the Supreme Judge of the world for the rectitude of our intentions, do, in the Name, and by Authority of the good People of these […] More

Fed and Flynn

February 15, 2017

Markets are trading on two themes primarily: How quickly¬†will the Fed raise interest rates again? Yellen’s testimony yesterday and separate remarks by Fed District Presidents Kaplan and Lacker suggest a third increase is coming pretty soon and need not be delayed pending clarification of fiscal and other policy changes. Yellen reprises her testimony before the […] More

Somewhat Softer Dollar on This First Day of Winter

December 21, 2016

The dollar has weakened 0.7% against the euro, 0.4% relative to the Swiss franc, 0.3% vis-a-vis the yen, 0.2% versus sterling, and 0.1% against the kiwi and yuan. U.S. stocks are a tad lower. The German Dax is flat. Stocks fell in other European centers and lost 1.0% in Indonesia, 0.3% in China and Japan, […] More

Markets Experiencing Most Panic of 2016

February 11, 2016

Ten-year sovereign debt yields fell overnight by 16 basis points in the U.K. and 4 bps in Germany.  The futures indication for the 10-year U.S. Treasury is an 11-basis point yield decline to 1.56%. Gold recorded its greatest daily leap in a year.  It’s up 3.3% on balance at $1,236.27 per troy ounce. West Texas […] More

Heavy Flow of Information Continues

September 3, 2015

The Bank of Brazil ended a 7-meeting streak of rate tightening, as risks of deepening recession outweigh danger of vicious cycle of currency depreciation and rising inflation.  The Selic Rate was left at 14.25%, its level after 325 basis points of tightening between October 2014 and July 2015. The Swedish Riksbank likewise left monetary policy […] More

Lots of New Information to be Absorbed Today

July 3, 2014

The ECB’s refinancing rate, marginal lending rate, and deposit rate were left unchanged at 0.15%, 0.40% and -0.10%.  Draghi’s press conference at 12:30 GMT is awaited for clues on forward rate guidance and details on how bank lending might be stimulated. Because of Friday’s Independence Day holiday, the monthly U.S. labor force survey gets released […] More

Aussie Labor Data Bummer

February 13, 2014

The Yellen senate testimony has been postponed as the U.S. faces another snow day. Australia’s jobless rate rose 0.2 percentage points to 6.0%, highest in slightly more than a decade and 0.6 percentage points greater than in January 2013.  This increase was accompanied by an equally unexpected 3.7K decline in jobs (analysts were predicting a […] More

Swedish Riksbank Keeps 1.0% Repo Rate Level

July 3, 2013

The repo rate needs to remain low to support the economy and enable inflation to rise to the target of 2 per cent.  Gradual increases in the repo rate are expected to begin during the second half of 2014, as assessed earlier. The future repo rate path was not changed either after the latest Riksbank […] More

Equities Hit by New European Concerns

July 3, 2013

Portugal’s foreign minister, and the head of the center-right coalition partner, resigned.  The root cause is an old theme, mounting intolerance to relentless and unworkable austerity.  Portuguese and Greek sovereign debt under new pressure.  The political mess in Egypt where PM Morsi refuses to step down also is promoting a risk-off atmosphere. Share prices slumped […] More

Riksbank Executive Board Retains 1.0% Swedish Repo Rate but Lowers Projected Future Rate Path

April 17, 2013

The repo rate needs to remain at a low level for a longer period of time to support the recovery to ensure that inflation rises towards the target. …Gradual increases in the repo rate are not expected to begin until the second half of 2014, which is around a year later than the earlier forecast. […] More