ECB Has Nobody to Blame But Self for Euro’s Buoyancy

July 9, 2014

The European Central Bank cut interest rates and unveiled plans for a targeted LTRO initiative in early June in order to avert deflation and ensure that the prolonged period of sub-target inflation in the euro area doesn’t drag down long-term inflation expectations, which officials insist remain well anchored near target.  In that month’s press conference, […] More

Whipsawed by Fed, ECB, and Then U.S. Labor Statistics

May 3, 2013

It’s been a week full of surprises but ultimately accentuating Europe’s relatively dismal outlook. The Fed on Wednesday left its policy guidance unchanged and affirmed the data-driven algorithms that will dictate future decisions.  While the ADP private jobs estimate that day was disappointing, new jobless insurance claims out Thursday of 324K, a 5-year low, and […] More

Japanese GDP Flopped

August 15, 2010

After suspiciously robust annualized growth of 4.1% in 4Q09 and 4.4% in 1Q10, Japanese growth virtually stalled last quarter, edging just 0.4% above the first-quarter level.  Growth in the major advanced economies was extremely diverse in the second quarter.  Japan did the worst, the aforementioned 0.4%.  Then came the United States with a 2.4% annualized […] More

Onset of Fed Rate Tightening: Historic Examples

April 14, 2010

Fed Chairman Bernanke’s remarks before the Joint Economic Committee today sent mixed signals — on the one hand failing to say that rates will probably stay at current exceptionally low levels for an extended period but on the other dwelling on the prospect of very high unemployment and long-term unemployment continuing.  I would put more […] More