Chinese Yuan
Long-Term Trend of the Dollar
January 5, 2009
In the 36 years between end-1972 and end-2008, the dollar depreciated 3-1/3% per annum against the Japanese yen and 2-1/4% against the D-mark. Over the 26 years prior to the launch of the euro (which fused the mark to other continental currencies), the dollar fell 2.5% per annum on balance against Germany’s currency. Among the […] More
G-7 in Recession
December 24, 2008
Christmas Eve finds all parts of the G-7 — the United States, Euroland, Japan, Britain, and Canada — in recession. They are not alone. New Zealand, Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Iceland, the Ukraine, Estonia and Latvia are among the bunch of other economies also in recession. With oil below $40, Russia appears a […] More
Chinese Rate Cut Statement Reveals Little
December 23, 2008
A statement on the PBOC web site merely details the further easing of monetary policy announced yesterday without explaining why the actions were taken. But such was the fifth rate cut following moves on September 15, October 8, October 29, and November 26. And a recent round of monthly indicators points to a much more […] More
Thursday Data Highlights
December 10, 2008
In addition to several central bank interest rate meetings, tomorrow sees the release of some economic indicators of interest. Chinese consumer prices take on added importance after the surprisingly sharp decline in producer price inflation reported today to 2.0% y/y in November from 6.6% in October and 10.1% in August. The United States and Canada […] More
A Global Attack on a Global Demand Deficiency
November 26, 2008
Acting in their own interests and based on local economic prospects, more central banks cut interest rates today. The biggest move was a 108-basis point reduction in China’s lending rate to 5.58%, matching the cumulative cuts of 27 bps each on September 15, October 8, and October 29th. The People’s Bank of China also slashed […] More
Expected Inflation in Motion
November 11, 2008
In recent years, central bankers had preached the imperative of anchoring price expectations at a low level. Low inflation is not a sufficient achievement. Equally important, policymakers wish to solidify investor confidence that consistently low inflation will be preserved over the medium term, even if exogenous shocks occasionally bump actual inflation away from the preferred […] More
Counting Upon The Asian NIE's and Developing Economies
October 23, 2008
The severity of the global recession will hinge importantly on the resilience of Asian newly industrialized economies, emerging economies, and developing economies. The notion of a polarized world, with advanced economies in North America and Europe as well as Japan, Australia and New Zealand posting quarters of negative growth but other countries only downshifting into […] More
Some Recent Important Central Bank Communications
September 18, 2008
Not surprisingly, the escalating financial market crisis has elicited some special central bank announcements this week and made other scheduled statements more important and less routine than usual. Below find some links to these public notices. Fed and Others Boost Swap Lines and Take Other Steps to Alleviate Money Market Stress Fed Approves $85 Bridging […] More
China: Not Everything is Rising
August 18, 2008
It is remarkable that the fourth largest economy in the world would still be recording real economic growth of marginally more than 10%. When an economy joins the upper tier in world rankings, potential economic growth generally declines, and the global environment was poor in 2Q08. Nonetheless, among monthly data released last week, retail sales […] More
Chinese Growth Still High
July 21, 2008
Although on-year real GDP growth slowed from 11.9% in 2Q07 to 11.7% in 4Q07 and 10.1% in 2Q08, underlying growth in the first half of 2008 surpassed 10.0% and was about a percentage point stronger than in the fourth quarter of 2007. The main loss of steam has been in export growth, which weakened to […] More
