Canadian Dollar

European Fiscal Problems Won’t Fade

April 30, 2010

Currency market trading next week will be dominated by the scramble to rescue Greece.  Outside aid for that heavily indebted economy has been misplayed repeatedly by just about everyone involved in negotiations, and the euro has paid a price for that indecision.  Investors cannot avoid comparing attempts to rescue Greece from sudden default to the […] More

No Ideal Solutions for the Euro

April 16, 2010

Greece is in perpetual check and facing checkmate unless officials get very creative.  Let me explain.  In return for the imposition of substantial fiscal cutbacks, an aid package will hopefully cut Greece’s long-term rates but not soon enough or deeply enough to forestall a severe recession. Greek authorities have no way to rotate growth toward […] More

Easter Holiday 2010 Finds Key Currencies Marching to Different Beats

April 1, 2010

The euro’s first-quarter range of $1.4882 – $1.3268 lay entirely within calendar 2009’s high-low boundaries of $1.5144 and $1.2458.  Until a week ago, euro momentum had been adverse.  It subsequently rallied 2.4% to $1.359 but remains 3.5% below the mid-point of this year’s trading range.  At times, perceptions that the euro area’s growth prospects are […] More

Interview on CAD, Yen and Euro Outlooks

March 31, 2010

With the first calendar quarter drawing to a close today, ForexTV thought it an appropriate time to check out what I’m thinking about current conditions and future prospects regarding the yen and euro as well as commodity-sensitive currencies like the loonie.  Watch my interview earlier this afternoon with Julie Sinha  of ForexTV. Copyright Larry Greenberg […] More

Many Uncertainties For Currency Traders to Sift Through

March 19, 2010

February 5th has become an important reference point for world financial markets.  For one thing it was a Friday.  Because currency trading is a 24-hour per day game, Friday closing levels provide a convenient opportunity to get a still picture of what’s happening.  Also in early February, stock markets bottomed after a long-overdue, but comparatively […] More

Pause in the Dollar

March 12, 2010

Upward pressure on the dollar has lost steam.  As of 16:00 GMT today, the U.S. currency was showing losses for the week of 1.3% against the Canadian dollar and Swiss franc, 0.9% against the euro and Australian dollar, 0.6% relative to the kiwi but only 0.2% versus sterling.  Previous dollar strength had been mostly at […] More

Better-Than-Forecast U.S. and Canadian Trade Figures in October

December 10, 2009

Canada and the United States do a huge amount a trade with one another, so their overall trade positions rarely improve together in the same month or, for that matter, worsen in tandem.  The United States is Canada’s largest export and import market.  Canada is the largest U.S. export market and the second largest origin […] More

Canadian Monetary Policy Left Unchanged

December 8, 2009

Bank of Canada policymakers agreed once again to retain a 0.25% overnight money target and, contingent upon the correctness of its inflation outlook, not to raise that rate before mid-2010.  The benchmark rate has been at 0.25% since a 25-bp rate cut on April 21.  From a cyclical peak of 4.5%, such had been cut […] More

Canadian Labor Market Turning Up?

December 4, 2009

Canada reported encouraging labor statistics.  Canadian jobs jumped 79.1K last month, more than reversing a 43.2K drop in October, and such have risen 93.6K on balance over the last four reported months.  Employment in November rose 37.9K among education workers and 73K for all service-sector workers, but manufacturing workers (up 12.6K) rose for the second […] More

Canadian GDP Growth and PPI Inflation Lower Than Expected

November 30, 2009

Canada’s recession ended only barely last quarter, as net exports exerted a 5.3 percentage point (ppt) drag on the annualized growth of GDP.  Growth of 0.4% at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (saar) reflected positive contributions of 1.8 ppts from personal consumption, 1.9 ppts from government spending, 0.5 ppts each from residential investment and all […] More