Deeper Analysis

Per Capita U.S. State GDP Rankings in 2018 Sorted by States That Supported Trump in 2016

October 15, 2020

President Trump has not disguised his contempt for states that supported his opponent, Hillary Clinton, in the 2016 presidential election. He has again pretty much written off such blue state stalwarts like California, New York and Illinois this year. This note presents my findings from cross-checking state per capita GDP in the most recently available […] More

U.S.-Ezone Manufacturing PMI Differential Narrowed in September

October 1, 2020

The Institute of Supply Management’s U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index settled back 0.6 points to a 2-month low of 55.4 in September. Sub-indices for production and orders showed a more pronounced slowdown, dropping 2.3 and 7.4 points under their August readings. The IHS-compiled euro area factory PMI, in contrast, increased 2.0 points to a 25-month […] More

September 2020 and Third Quarter in Figures

September 30, 2020

Third-quarter declines in the dollar were for the most part trimmed during the past month. Likewise, the dollar fell in the quarter but generally rose in September. There weren’t any central bank interest rate changes in the quarter in the countries examined here. Ten-year sovereign debt yields fell in September, while net changes between end-2Q […] More

2020 Recession Shared Widely

September 24, 2020

Two characteristics of the 2020 recession set it apart from all others in the last hundred years. It did not result from some kind of economic or financial market imbalance, and it constitutes the second extreme downturn in a row. Business cycle upswing do not end from old age. The expansion that began in mid-2009 […] More

U.S. Stock Market of Trump Compared to Earlier Presidencies

September 21, 2020

The favorable impression of the stock market performance during President Trump’s first term reflects in large part two factors: the very low unemployment level until just before the pandemic began and the appreciation of U.S. equity prices. The performance of the Dow Jones Industrials duringĀ  Donald Trump’s stewardship, however, has not been nearly as stellar […] More

FOMC Statement and Updated Forecasts

September 16, 2020

I had two quick takeaways from today’s FOMC statement. First, Under the modified FOMC framework for treating its twin policy mandates, forward guidance is expressed in an enlarged paragraph: The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. With inflation running persistently below this longerrun […] More

Recent See-Saw Pattern in Spread between U.S. and Euroland Manufacturing PMIs

September 1, 2020

The ISM-compiled U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index rose 1.8 index points to a 19-month high of 56.0 in August and easily beat analyst expectations. Euroland’s IHS-compiled manufacturing PMI, by contrast, dipped 0.1 point to a 2-month low of 51.7. The spread between those two data series thus shifted 1.9 points more advantageously toward the United […] More

August 2020 in Figures

August 31, 2020

Financial markets in August experienced significant increases in share prices and 10-year sovereign debt yields and a pronounced further decline in the dollar’s external value. Central bank policy interest rates again held steady in the U.K., U.K., Switzerland, euro area and Japan but were lowered in several developing economy countries such as Mexico by 50 […] More

Comment on U.S. Presidential Election Results and Economic Growth

August 27, 2020

In this year’s bid for a second term, President Trump is taking credit for better U.S. economic growth than his predecessors were able to achieve at least over the first three years prior to the pandemic. For this note, I examined real GDP in the Trump Presidency and compared such to the first terms of […] More

Euroland at a Glance and As a Foil Against Which to Assess the State of America

August 13, 2020

The Covid-19 pandemic presents enormous and similar challenges to most nations. 2020 is an especially critical year for the United States because it coincides with a presidential election that presents very different visions on the country’s future. We look at Europe, because the Democratic Party agenda would move the United States closer to the European […] More