Dollar and Sovereign Debt Yields Lower, while Equities Rebound
November 22, 2022
The dollar fell overnight by 0.8% against the Swiss franc, 0.5% versus the yen and sterling and 0.3% relative to the euro, Aussie dollar and loonie.
Ten-year sovereign debt yields dropped six basis points in the U.S., four bps in the U.K. but just a basis point in Germany.
The DOW and S&P 500 are up 0.6% and 0.3%, whilde the Nasdaq shows a 0.3% loss so far. European stock markets are somewhat firmer. Japan’s Nikkei rose 0.6%, but the Hang Seng index lost over 1%.
Prices for gold and oil climbed moderately.
The latest growth projections from the Paris-based OECD call for a sobering 2.3% global GDP rise next year, with growth of merely 0.5% in the U.S. and Euroland topped by 1.8% in Japan. Canadian GDP is seen climbing 1.0%, while Britain — already in recession– is expected to contract 0.4%. India’s projected 5.7% growth rate in 2023 tops China’s of 4.6%.
Consumer confidence in November fell to a 4-month low in South Korea but posted a 13-month high in Turkey, a 3-month high in Denmark, and a 3-month high as well in Belgium.
Euroland’s seasonally adjusted current account deficit shrunk on a seasonally adjusted basis to EUR 8.1 billion in September from EUR 26.9 billion in the prior month but widened to EUR 55.8 billion in the third quarter from EUR 39.6 billion in 2Q. As a percent of GDP, the current account swung from a 2.8% surplus in the 12 months through September 2021 to a -0.3% deficit in the subsequent one-year period ending in September 2022. September’s unadjusted current account managed to post a EUR 3.8 billion surplus, however.
Canadian retail sales fell 0.5% in September and recorded the smallest on-year advance (6.9%) in a half year. Mexican retail sales in September dipped 0.2% on month and rose only 3.3% on year, the least in a year and a half.
Polish producer price inflation eased to a 7-month low but still-rapid 22.9% in October. Irish wholesale price inflation, in contrast, accelerated to a 32-month high of 8.0%.
German producer price inflation slowed to a 4-month low of 34.5% in October from 45.8% in both August and September but remained almost twice as high as 18.6% recorded in October 2021..
The Central Bank of Nigeria’s policy interest rate has been raised another full percentage point to 16.5%, bringing its increase since May to 500 basis points. CPI inflation in that economy is at a 17-year high of 21.1%.
Hungarian monetary officials at Magyar Nemzeti Bank kept their base rate unchanged at 13% and the one-day deposit rate steady at 18.0%. The base rate was previously increased from a pandemic low of 0.60% to 2.4% at the end of 2021 before a progressively more aggressive tightening earlier this year.
The Richmond Fed manufacturing survey index recovered just one point in November to -9 (a 2-month high) versus a 29-month low in October.
Copyright 2022, Larry Greenberg. All rights reserved. No secondary distribution without express permission.
Tags: Canadian and Mexican retail sales, Central Bank of Nigeria, Euroland current account, German PPI