Deeper Analysis
April 2020 in Figures
April 30, 2020
Imposed business shutdowns around the world in March had severely rattled financial market confidence, sending share prices sharply lower and the dollar significantly upward. The feared negative impact on economic data was visibly confirmed during April, but forward-looking investors found hope in the policy response of low interest rates and fiscal support. Although long-term interest […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Handicapping the Dollar Outlook in a Pandemic-Preoccupied Era
April 30, 2020
Projecting the dollar’s value has always been very challenging and humbling. Economic trend forecasting is hard enough, and anticipating the reaction of financial markets to different economic scenarios introduces a whole new level of uncertainty to the exercise. Market watchers this year have been dealing with a third broad complication and the most vexing of […] More
Central Bank Watch
No Fireworks from ECB this Time
April 30, 2020
At a scheduled meeting of the European Central Bank Governing Council, officials left key interest rate unchanged (a 0.0% refinancing rate flanked by a -0.5% deposit rate and a 0.25% marginal lending rate). Quantitative stimulus (asset purchases) was not enhanced beyond last month’s parameters. Terms were relaxed on some lending operations, and a new series […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
ECB Monetary Policy Review and Some Atrocious Economic Data
April 30, 2020
At a scheduled meeting of the European Central Bank Governing Council, officials left key interest rate unchanged (a 0.0% refinancing rate flanked by a -0.5% deposit rate and a 0.25% marginal lending rate). Quantitative stimulus (asset purchases) was not enhanced beyond last month’s parameters. Terms were relaxed on some lending operations, and a new series […] More
Central Bank Watch
FOMC Statement
April 29, 2020
No surprises can be found in today’s just released statement. The federal funds target range was left at 0-0.25% with guidance reaffirmed that “the Committee expects to maintain this target range until it is confident that the economy has weathered recent events and is on track to achieve its maximum employment and price stability goals.” […] More
Central Bank Watch
FOMC Preview
April 29, 2020
The last scheduled Federal Open Market Committee meeting was held three months ago. A scheduled meeting on March 17-18 was cancelled following back-to-back unscheduled meetings on March 3rd and March 13th. Since the January 29th FOMC statement, the dollar has strengthened 1.4% against the euro but weakened 2.3% relative to the yen. The 10-year Treasury […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Lots of Data and an FOMC Meeting to Digest
April 29, 2020
Even with Japanese markets shut for the first of several “Golden Week” holidays, today is a very active day. Euroland economic sentiment, U.S. GDP, and several price statistics head a long list of data releases. Also, the FOMC will announce the conclusions of a scheduled review of monetary policy, which will be followed by a […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Dollar and Oil Price Down but Stock Markets Mostly Up
April 28, 2020
The dollar fell broadly overnight, with the biggest declines coming against the Mexican peso (1.5%), Norwegian krone (1.4%), and Swedish krona (1.2%). (The Swedish Riksbank released a dovish statement, but the Executive Board did not cut the zero percent repo rate as some had been expecting). The dollar also dropped by 0.6% relative to the […] More
Central Bank Watch
Enhancement Approved of Bank of Japan Monetary Easing
April 27, 2020
Normally a 2-day deliberation, the BOJ Board’s meeting was completed in a single 3-hour 1-minute session. The eye-catching change at this month’s policy review was the shift to unlimited JGB purchases in order to ensure against any unforeseen rise of the 10-year yield above the target of around zero percent. Such a change had been […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Softer Dollar as Investor Risk Appetite of Improves
April 27, 2020
The dollar opened the new week on a down note, sliding 1.0% against the Australian dollar, 0.8% relative to the kiwi, 0.5% vis-a-vis the peso and sterling, 0.3% against the euro, and 0.2% versus the yen and loonie. Gold is little changed. The main financial market move today has been a 17.4% dive in West […] More
