October in Figures
October 31, 2019
The intensification of risk related to U.S.-Sino trade talks and Brexit that happened in September receded partly in October. Monthend came and went without the U.K. leaving the EU either with or without a deal, and sufficient progress in the trade talks forestalled the threat of sharp tariff increases at least for a while. Impeachment hearings against U.S. President Trump wasn’t a significant factor. The Federal Reserve enacted a third 25-basis point interest rate hike, but signaled that’s probably all the reduction for now. Monetary policy settings weren’t changed the euro area, Japan, U.K. or Switzerland.
Ten-year sovereign debt yields rose over 10 basis points in Germany, Switzerland and Canada but recorded scant net change in Japan or the United States. Solid gains in the yen and dollar during September were reversed to varying degrees in October. Major U.S. equity market indices posted unusually diverse results. Share prices elsewhere rose strongly in Germany and Japan, but fell in Canada and the U.K.. Gold prices rose. Oil was steady on balance.
| 10-Yr Yield | 09/30/19 | 10/31/19 | Chg in Oct |
| U.S. | 1.67% | 1.68% | +1 Basis Point |
| Germany | -0.58% | -0.41% | +17 |
| Japan | -0.17% | -0.15% | +2 |
| U.K. | 0.48% | 0.63% | +15 |
| Canada | 1.36% | 1.41% | +5 |
| Switzerland | -0.82% | -0.61% | +21 |
| CB Policy Rate | 09/30/19 | 10/31/19 | Chg in Oct |
| Fed funds target | 1.75/2.00% | 1.50/1.75% | -25 Basis Points |
| ECB deposit rate | -0.50% | -0.50% | 0 |
| BOJ policy rate | -0.10% | -0.10% | 0 |
| BOE Bank Rate | 0.75% | 0.75% | 0 |
| Swiss 3M Libor | -1.25/-0.25% | -1.25/-0.25%0 | 0 |
| FX | 09/30/19 | 10/31/19 | Pct Chg in $ |
| EUR/USD | 1.0900 | 1.1152 | -2.3% |
| USD/JPY | 108.10 | 107.99 | -0.1% |
| USD/CHF | 0.9979 | 0.9865 | +1.1% |
| GBP/USD | 1.2293 | 1.2953 | -5.1% |
| AUD/USD | 0.6750 | 0.6894 | -2.1% |
| NZD/USD | 0.6264 | 0.6413 | -2.3% |
| USD/CAD | 1.3245 | 1.3168 | -0.6% |
| USD/CNY | 7.1483 | 7.0387 | -1.5% |
| Equities | 09/30/19 | 10/31/19 | Chg in Oct |
| S&P 500 | 2978 | 3034 | +1.9% |
| Nasdaq | 7999 | 8292 | +3.7% |
| Djia | 26917 | 27046 | +0.4% |
| Dax | 12428 | 12867 | +3.5% |
| Nikkei | 21756 | 22927 | +5.4% |
| Ftse | 7408 | 7248 | -2.2% |
| Canada TSE | 16664 | 16469 | -1.2% |
| Swiss SMI | 10078 | 10220 | +1.4% |
| Commodities | 09/30/19 | 10/31/19 | Chg in Oct |
| Oil, $ per barrel | 54.07 | 54.18 | +0.2% |
| Gold, $ per ounce | 1465.70 | 1511.40 | +3.1% |
Copyright Larry Greenberg 2019. All rights reserved. No secondary distribution without express permission.
Tags: 10-year sovereign debt yields, central bank interest rates, equity prices, foreign exchange rates, gold and oil prices
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