September and the Third Quarter in Figures
September 30, 2019
A well-bid dollar in the third quarter correlated with lesser gains in U.S. equity prices than in the stock markets of Germany and Japan. Despite intensifying White House complaints that the Fed isn’t cutting U.S. interest rates enough, two reductions of the federal funds target were engineered in the quarter totaling 50 basis points. In contrast, monetary policies were left unchanged in Japan, the U.K., and Switzerland, and the ECB deposit rate was reduced by only 10 basis points. Likewise, ten-year sovereign debt yields declined more sharply in the quarter in North America than in Europe or Japan. The price of oil fell in both the quarter and September, while roughly a half of a sharp rise in the price of gold during July-August was reversed this past month.
| 10-Yr Yield | 09/30/19 | Chg in Sept | Chg in 3Q19 |
| U.S. | 1.67% | -12 Basis Points | -34 Basis Points |
| Germany | -0.58% | +12 | -26 |
| Japan | -0.17% | +5 | -6 |
| U.K. | 0.48% | 0 | -35 |
| Canada | 1.36% | +20 | -10 |
| Switzerland | -0.82% | +27 | -24 |
| CB Policy Rate | 09/30/19 | Chg in Sept | Chg in 3Q19 |
| Fed funds target | 1.75/2.00% | -25 Basis Points | -50 Basis Points |
| ECB deposit rate | -0.50% | -10 | -10 |
| BOJ policy rate | -0.10% | 0 | 0 |
| BOE Bank Rate | 0.75% | 0 | 0 |
| Swiss 3M Libor | -1.25/-0.25% | 0 | 0 |
| FX | 09/30/19 | Pct Chg in $ | Pct Chg in $ |
| EUR/USD | 1.0900 | +0.8% | +4.3% |
| USD/JPY | 108.10 | +1.8% | +0.2% |
| USD/CHF | 0.9979 | +0.8% | +2.2% |
| GBP/USD | 1.2293 | -1.0% | +3.3% |
| AUD/USD | 0.6750 | +0.1% | +4.0% |
| NZD/USD | 0.6264 | +0.7% | +7.2% |
| USD/CAD | 1.3245 | -0.5% | +1.1% |
| USD/CNY | 7.1483 | -0.1% | +4.1% |
| Equities | 09/30/19 | Chg in Sept | Chg in 3Q |
| S&P 500 | 2978 | +1.8% | +1.2% |
| Nasdaq | 7999 | +0.5% | -0.1% |
| Djia | 26917 | +1.9% | +1.2% |
| Dax | 12428 | +4.1% | +0.2% |
| Nikkei | 21756 | +5.1% | +2.3% |
| Ftse | 7408 | +2.8% | -0.2% |
| Canada TSE | 16664 | +1.4% | +1.7% |
| Swiss SMI | 10078 | +1.8% | +1.8% |
| Commodities | 09/30/19 | Chg in Sept | Chg in 3Q19 |
| Oil, $ per barrel | 54.07 | -1.9% | -7.1% |
| Gold, $ per ounce | 1465.70 | -3.5% | +3.8% |
Copyright Larry Greenberg 2019. All rights reserved. No secondary distribution without express permission.
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