Central Bank Watch
Bank of Canada Tightens Further
July 11, 2018
Canada’s overnight target central bank rate was lifted to 1.50% today. Bank of Canada officials had prepared markets to expect such a move today. It follows similar 25-basis point increases enacted in September 2017, January 2018 and, most recently, May 2018. A released statement of explanation points to more normalization in the future. Governing Council […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Markets React as Trump Stirs Pot of Global Disorder Further
July 11, 2018
Share prices dropped 1.8% in China, 1.4% in Hong Kong, 1.2% in Japan, and 0.7% in Taiwan and Australia. In European markets, equities today are down over 1.0% in Germany, Italy, Spain, France and Switzerland, and the DOW dropped some 160 points in the first quarter hour of U.S. trading. There have also been outsized […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Weak European Data Out but Little Fresh News on the Trade War Front
July 10, 2018
The dollar overnight gained 0.4% against the yen, 0.3% relative to the euro, Swiss franc and yuan, 0.2% versus the kiwi and 0.1% relative to the Australian currencies and the loonie. The Trump Administration has flipped the U.S. political theme from tariffs, which rattled markets last week, to the president’s supreme court justice choice announced […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Can’t Trust Mondays
July 9, 2018
Trade disputes haven’t been resolved, but global equities and emerging market currencies have risen with the second quarter earnings season now close at hand. Japan’s Nikkei closed 1.2% stronger, and share prices elsewhere in the Pacific Rim rose by 2.5% in China, 2.0% in Indonesia, 1.7% in Hong Kong, 1.2% in Singapore, 1.1% in Taiwan, […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week
July 6, 2018
Central Banks: Monetary policy meetings in Canada, South Korea, Malaysia, Poland, Serbia, Ukraine, Israel, and Peru. Fed officials speaking publicly include Bostic and Kashkari. Scheduled U.S. Statistical Releases: Consumer prices, producer prices, import prices, JOLTS index of worker hires and separations, NIFB small business sentiment index, Reuters/U. Michigan consumer sentiment, consumer credit and weekly jobless […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Weaker Dollar as Trade Tensions Intensify
July 6, 2018
The dollar is down today by 0.6% against the euro and kiwi, 0.5% relative to sterling and the Australian dollar, 0.4% versus the Swiss franc, 0.3% against the loonie, and 0.2% versus the yen. The Chinese yuan edged down 0.1%. Yesterday’s FOMC minutes were pretty much a non-event. Today’s monthly U.S. jobs data for June […] More
Deeper Analysis
U.S.-Minus-Ezone Non-manufacturing PMI Differential Narrowed Last Month
July 5, 2018
The ISM U.S. nonmanufacturing PMI minus IHS Euroland services PMI narrowed 0.9 points to 3.9 in June after having widened 2.7 points in May. Both economies experienced faster growth last month in these sectors. The U.S. index climbed 0.5 points to 59.1, but Euroland’s measure went up by a larger 1.4 points to 55.2. Manufacturing […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Stocks Up in U.S. and Europe After Dropping Overnight in Asia
July 5, 2018
Asian equities fell to 8-9 month lows overnight, including losses of 1.0% in Taiwan, 0.9% in China and 0.8% in Japan. The Trump Administration is set to impose more than $30 billion of additional tariffs on Chinese imports, and China plans to match that raise immediately. The weakness of Asian markets did not carry over […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Lack of U.S. Leadership on This Independence Day Depresses Market Action
July 4, 2018
The dollar is unchanged against the yen, kiwi and loonie, up 0.2% relative to the euro and 0.1% versus the Swiss franc and Aussie dollar, and down by 0.1% vis-a-vis sterling and the yuan. Stocks in Europe are down 0.4% in Germany and Italy, 0.3% in the U.K., and 0.1% in France. Asia saw some […] More
Central Bank Watch
Swedish Riksbank
July 3, 2018
Sweden’s repo rate was kept at negative 0.50%, and a new statement from the Executive Committee did not change previous forward guidance that a gradually rising trend is likely to begin late this year. One dissenting committee member wanted a 25-basis point hike now, and another favored saying such would occur in September or October. Projected […] More
