U.S.-Minus-Ezone Non-manufacturing PMI Differential Narrowed Last Month
July 5, 2018
The ISM U.S. nonmanufacturing PMI minus IHS Euroland services PMI narrowed 0.9 points to 3.9 in June after having widened 2.7 points in May. Both economies experienced faster growth last month in these sectors. The U.S. index climbed 0.5 points to 59.1, but Euroland’s measure went up by a larger 1.4 points to 55.2. Manufacturing PMI surveys released Monday had previously indicated that the United States’ factory sector growth was faster in June than May, while Euroland experienced positive by lessening factory activity in the latest month. The rightmost column of the table below, which sums up the two differentials, increased 0.2 points to +9.2, the most advantageous U.S. position since December 2014.
The positive trend in U.S. non-manufacturing production and orders each quickened sharply during June, the former rising 2.6 points to a reading of 63.9 and the latter climbing 2.7 points to 63.2. But the sub-indices for employment grew marginally more slowly, and inflation receded to a score of 60.7 from 64.3.
Reporting members of the euro area had a range of service sector PMIs in June from as low as 54.3 in Italy to as high as 59.5 in Ireland. The two scores respectively represented 4- and 5-month highs in these data series. In between those extremes, the French and German IHS-compiled indices increased to 2- and 4-month highs of 55.9 and 54.5, while Spain’s services PMI dropped 1.0 point to a 6-month low of 55.4.
IHS also calculates a U.S. services purchasing managers index. In contrast to the faster rate of growth reported by the Institute of Supply Management in U.S. non-manufacturing last month, the IHS services PMI slid 0.3 points to 56.5 on top of a 7.8-point drop seen in May.
| PMIs | U.S. | Ezone | U.S. | Ezone | Sum of | ||
| NonMfg | Services | Spread | Mf’g | Mf’g | Spread | Spreads | |
| Jan 2012 | 56.8 | 50.4 | +6.4 | 54.1 | 48.8 | +5.3 | +10.9 |
| Feb | 56.1 | 48.8 | +7.3 | 51.9 | 49.0 | +2.9 | +10.2 |
| March | 55.0 | 49.2 | +5.8 | 53.3 | 47.7 | +5.6 | +11.4 |
| April | 53.7 | 46.9 | +6.8 | 54.1 | 45.9 | +8.2 | +15.0 |
| May | 54.1 | 46.7 | +7.4 | 52.5 | 45.1 | +7.4 | +14.8 |
| June | 52.7 | 47.1 | +5.6 | 50.2 | 45.1 | +5.1 | +10.7 |
| July | 52.9 | 47.9 | +5.0 | 50.5 | 44.0 | +6.5 | +11.5 |
| August | 54.3 | 47.2 | +7.1 | 50.7 | 45.1 | +5.6 | +12.7 |
| Sept | 55.2 | 46.1 | +9.1 | 51.6 | 46.1 | +5.5 | +14.6 |
| October | 54.8 | 46.0 | +8.8 | 51.7 | 45.4 | +6.3 | +15.1 |
| November | 54.8 | 46.7 | +8.1 | 49.9 | 46.2 | +3.7 | +11.8 |
| December | 55.7 | 47.8 | +7.9 | 50.2 | 46.1 | +4.1 | +12.0 |
| Jan 2013 | 55.2 | 48.6 | +6.6 | 53.1 | 47.9 | +5.2 | +11.8 |
| February | 54.8 | 47.9 | +8.1 | 53.1 | 47.9 | +5.2 | +13.3 |
| March | 54.5 | 46.4 | +8.1 | 51.5 | 46.8 | +4.7 | +12.8 |
| April | 53.8 | 47.0 | +6.8 | 50.0 | 46.7 | +3.3 | +10.1 |
| May | 54.0 | 47.2 | +6.8 | 50.0 | 48.3 | +1.7 | +8.5 |
| June | 53.4 | 48.3 | +5.1 | 52.5 | 48.8 | +3.7 | +8.8 |
| July | 55.9 | 49.8 | +6.1 | 54.9 | 50.3 | +4.6 | +10.7 |
| August | 57.9 | 50.7 | +7.2 | 56.3 | 51.4 | +4.9 | +12.1 |
| Sept | 54.5 | 52.2 | +2.3 | 56.0 | 51.1 | +4.9 | +7.2 |
| October | 55.1 | 51.6 | +3.5 | 56.6 | 51.3 | +5.3 | +8.8 |
| November | 54.1 | 51.2 | +2.9 | 57.0 | 51.6 | +5.4 | +8.3 |
| December | 53.0 | 51.0 | +2.0 | 56.5 | 52.7 | +3.8 | +5.8 |
| Jan 2014 | 54.0 | 51.6 | +2.4 | 51.3 | 54.0 | -2.7 | -0.3 |
| February | 52.5 | 52.6 | -0.1 | 54.3 | 53.2 | +1.1 | +1.0 |
| March | 53.7 | 52.1 | +1.6 | 54.4 | 53.0 | +1.4 | +3.0 |
| April | 55.3 | 53.1 | +2.2 | 55.3 | 53.4 | +1.9 | +4.1 |
| May | 56.1 | 53.2 | +2.9 | 55.6 | 52.2 | +3.4 | +6.3 |
| June | 56.3 | 52.8 | +3.5 | 55.7 | 51.8 | +3.9 | +7.4 |
| July | 57.9 | 54.2 | +3.7 | 56.4 | 51.8 | +4.6 | +8.3 |
| August | 58.6 | 53.1 | +5.5 | 58.1 | 50.7 | +7.4 | +12.9 |
| Sept | 58.1 | 52.4 | +5.7 | 56.1 | 50.3 | +5.8 | +11.5 |
| October | 56.9 | 52.1 | +4.8 | 57.9 | 50.6 | +7.3 | +12.1 |
| November | 58.8 | 51.1 | +7.7 | 57.6 | 50.1 | +7.5 | +15.2 |
| December | 56.5 | 51.6 | +4.9 | 55.1 | 50.6 | +4.5 | +9.4 |
| Jan 2015 | 56.7 | 52.7 | +4.0 | 53.5 | 51.0 | +2.5 | +6.5 |
| February | 57.1 | 53.7 | +4.4 | 52.3 | 51.0 | +1.3 | +5.7 |
| March | 56.9 | 54.2 | +2.7 | 52.3 | 52.2 | +0.1 | +2.8 |
| April | 57.5 | 54.1 | +3.4 | 51.6 | 52.0 | -0.4 | +3.0 |
| May | 55.9 | 53.8 | +2.1 | 53.1 | 52.2 | +0.9 | +3.0 |
| June | 56.2 | 54.4 | +1.8 | 53.1 | 53.1 | 0.0 | +1.8 |
| July | 59.6 | 54.0 | +5.6 | 51.9 | 52.4 | -0.5 | +5.1 |
| August
Sept October |
58.3
56.7 58.3 |
54.4
53.7 54.1 |
+3.9
+3.0 +4.2 |
51.0
50.0 49.4 |
52.3
52.0 52.3 |
-1.3
-2.0 -2.9 |
+2.6
+1.0 +1.3 |
| November
December Jan 2016 February March April May June July August Sept October November December Jan 2017 February March April May June July August Sept October November December Jan 2018 Feb 2018 Mar 2018 Apr 2018 May 2018 June 2018
|
56.6
55.8 53.5 54.3 54.9 55.7 53.6 56.1 54.9 51.7 56.6 54.6 56.2 56.6 56.5 57.4 55.6 57.3 57.1 57.2 54.3 55.2 59.4 59.8 57.3 56.0 59.9 59.5 58.8 56.8 58.6 59.1 |
54.2
54.2 53.6 53.3 53.1 53.1 53.3 52.8 52.9 52.8 52.2 52.8 53.9 54.4 53.7 55.5 56.0 56.4 56.3 55.4 54.9 54.7 55.8 55.0 56.2 56.6 58.0 56.2 54.9 54.7 53.8 55.2
|
+1.7
+1.6 -0.1 +1.0 +1.8 +2.6 +0.3 +3.3 +2.0 -1.1 +4.4 +1.8 +2.3 +2.2 +2.8 +1.9 -0.4 +0.9 +0.8 +1.8 -0.6 +0.5 +3.6 +4.8 +1.1 -0.6 +1.9 +3.3 +3.9 +2.1 +4.8 +3.9 |
48.4
48.0 48.2 49.7 51.7 50.7 51.0 52.8 52.8 49.4 51.7 52.0 53.5 54.5 56.0 57.6 56.6 55.3 55.5 56.7 56.5 59.3 60.2 58.5 58.2 59.3 59.1 60.8 59.3 57.3 58.7 60.2 |
52.8
53.2 52.3 51.2 51.6 51.7 51.5 52.8 52.0 51.7 52.6 53.5 53.7 54.9 55.2 55.4 56.2 56.7 57.0 57.4 56.6 57.4 58.1 58.5 60.1 63.3 61.1 58.6 56.6 56.2 55.5 54.9 |
-4.4
-5.2 -4.1 -1.5 +0.1 -1.0 -0.5 +0.0 +0.8 -2.3 -0.9 -1.5 -0.2 -0.4 +0.8 +2.2 +0.4 -1.4 -1.5 -0.7 -0.1 +1.9 +2.1 0.0 -1.9 -4.0 -2.0 +2.2 +2.7 +1.1 +3.2 +5.3 |
-2.7
-3.6 -4.2 -1.4 +1.5 +1.6 -0.9 +3.7 +3.4 -3.7 +4.0 +0.5 +3.1 +1.8 +3.6 +4.1 +0.0 -0.5 -0.7 +1.1 -0.7 +2.4 +5.7 +4.8 -0.8 -4.6 -0.1 +5.5 +6.6 +3.2 +9.0 +9.2 |
Copyright 2018, Larry Greenberg. All rights reserved. No secondary distribution without express permission.
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