Central Bank Watch
South African Monetary Tightening Paused
May 19, 2016
The South African Reserve Bank’s repo rate had been raised by a percentage point in three moves between January 2014 and July 2015 and lifted by another 100 basis points in three successive monetary policy committee meetings in November 2015, January 2016 and, most recently, March 17, 2016. Today’s decision to leave the repo rate […] More
Central Bank Watch
Bank Indonesia
May 19, 2016
A 6.75% BI has been retained. This was a second straight month without a change in the monetary stance following 25-bp cuts in each of the first three months of 2016. The statement released today suggests that additional cuts could occur. Inflation is within the 1-4% target. The current account deficit is shrinking, and the […] More
Central Bank Watch
Bank Negara Malaysia
May 19, 2016
Malaysia’s monetary policy rate was left at 3.25% as expected. It’s been at 3.25% since a 25-basis point increase in July 2014. There was also 75 basis points of tightening in 2010 and a fourth 25-bp hike in May 2011. A released statement today concluded, “at the current level of the OPR, the stance of […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
FOMC Minutes and a Missing Plane Rattle Market Nerves
May 19, 2016
A wide range of commodities have dropped sharply, including overnight declines of 1.5% in gold, 1.9% in oil and over 2.0% in copper. Stocks and bonds also suffered. Share prices dropped 1.3% in New Zealand and Singapore, 1.2% in India, 1.0% in Hong Kong, 0.8% in Taiwan, 0.6% in Indonesia and Australia, and 0.5% in […] More
Central Bank Watch
FOMC Minutes
May 18, 2016
Participants agreed that their ongoing assessments of the data and other incoming information, as well as the implications for the outlook, would determine the timing and pace of future adjustments to the stance of monetary policy. Most participants judged that if incoming data were consistent with economic growth picking up in the second quarter, labor […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Japanese GDP Growth in 4Q Beat Expectations. Ezone Inflation Negative. Awaiting FOMC Minutes
May 18, 2016
The dollar strengthened overnight by 0.7% against the Australian dollar, 0.5% relative to the kiwi and loonie, 0.4% vis-a-vis the euro, 0.3% against the yen 0.2% versus the yuan and 0.1% relative to sterling. Gold lost 0.3% to $1,273.30 per ounce, and copper fell even more sharply. West Texas Intermediate crude oil firmed 0.3% to […] More
Central Bank Watch
National Bank of Serbia
May 17, 2016
Serbia’s central bank executive board left its main interest rate at 4.25%. There’s been just one change this year, a 25-basis point cut in February, but seven 50-basis point reductions were implemented last year. Serbia is one of many economies with inflation (0.4% in April) significantly below target (2.5-5.5%) but a likelihood of a rising […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Several Developments Including a New Brexit Poll
May 17, 2016
According to a new British opinion poll that surveyed about 800 people by phone, the margin of people favoring continuing membership in the European Union versus leaving that group has doubled to about 15 percentage points with 55% want to stay and 40% now in support of leaving. Sterling is 0.6% firmer against the dollar […] More
Deeper Analysis
Sterling and Brexit
May 16, 2016
A referendum to decide whether Great Britain remains in the European Union is scheduled for June 23, just over five weeks away. Economic experts and other pundits both within the U.K. and in the wider world community widely predict that a verdict to leave the EU would be disastrous both in the immediate term and […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Weaker-than-Expected Chinese Data and a Rise in Oil Prices
May 16, 2016
In April, Chinese M2 money grew 12.8% on year, down from 13.4% in March and a recent high of 14.1% in January. The 12-month increase in industrial production and retail sales slowed to 6.0% and 10.1% from 6.8% and 10.5% in March. Fixed asset investment in the first four months of 2016 was 10.5% greater […] More
