Lots of Data to Process

August 28, 2015

The last Friday of August brought forth an exhausting ton of released data:  Japanese consumer prices, retail sales, household spending and income, and unemployment; also eurozone sentiment, German consumer prices, French producer prices, Italian wages, consumer confidence and business sentiment, Spanish CPI and retail sales, Swedish GDP, Greek GDP, Swiss GDP, Brazilian GDP, Polish GDP, Czech GDP, British GDP and consumer confidence, U.S. consumer confidence, real consumption expenditures and PCE price deflator, and Canadian, Austrian, Singaporean, Greek and Malaysian PPIs.  Chinese corporate profits arrived, and so did Portuguese retail sales and industrial production, Cypriot industrial output, Norwegian and Irish retail sales as well as Austria’s August manufacturing PMI.

The dollar has risen 0.4% against the Aussie dollar and sterling, 0.3% relative to the kiwi, and 0.2% versus the loonie and euro.  The greenback is down 0.5% against the Swissie and 0.3% versus the yuan but unchanged relative to the yen.

Some stock markets soared like the 4.8% climb in China’s Shanghai composite index or the 3.0% advance in Japan’s Nikkei-225.  U.S. share prices are somewhat lower after strong gains on Wednesday and Thursday.  Stocks are down 1.1% in Italy and 0.7% in Germany.

The rebound of West Texas Intermediate oil, up 2.9% to $43.79 overnight, continues to be a major story.  Gold firmed 1.1% to $1,137.51.

Ten-year sovereign debt yields fell five basis points in Britain, 4 bps in the U.S., 3 bps in Canada, and a basis point in Japan and Germany.

The U. Michigan consumer sentiment index slumped 1.2 points to a 3-month low of 91.9.

U.S. personal consumption and income rose by 0.3% and 0.4% in July, but the core PCE price deflator slipped another notch to 1.2% on year.  The total PCE deflator stayed at 0.3%.

British real GDP rose 0.7% last quarter, confirming the preliminary estimate, and was 2.6% greater than in 2Q14.  British consumer confidence rose to 7 in August from a score of 4 in July.

Greek GDP growth accelerated to 1.6% in 2Q.

Swiss 2Q GDP also outperformed expectations, firming 0.2% on quarter and 1.2% on year.

Brazilian GDP contracted sharply last quarter, dropping 1.9% from 1Q and 2.6% on year.

Czech and Polish GDP rose 1.0% and 0.9% between 1Q and 2Q and by 4.4% and 3.6% on year.

German consumer price inflation held at 0.2% in August, thanks to a 7.6% plunge in energy over the past year.

Italian wages rose 0.1% on month and 1.2% on year in August.  Italy also reported a 2.3-point jump in consumer confidence, balanced by a 1.0-point drop in manufacturer sentiment. 

In the year to July, French producer prices fell by 1.6%.  Producer prices in Malaysia, Greece and Singapore plunged 5.7%, 6.7% and 8.0%.  Austria’s PPI dropped 1.1%.  Retail sales posted a 12-month increase of 2.0% in Norway, 9.9% in Ireland, and 1.6% in Portugal.  Chinese corporate profits went up 1.2%.

Economic sentiment in the eurozone edged 0.2 points higher in August, defying expectations of a 0.2-point dip in spite of some deterioration in the industrial sector. Austria’s factory PMI fell 1.9 points in August to a 3-month low of only 50.5.

Japanese unemployment returned to 3.3% in July, same as in May following 3.4% in June.  Japanese retail sales rose 1.2% on month in July, reversing June’s 0.6% drop, and was 1.6% greater than in July 2014.  Japanese real household spending fell 0.6% on month and 0.2% on year in July.  Core CPI inflation in Japan fell to zero in July, lowest since May 2013.  In month-on-month terms, core inflation was unchanged in July after a 0.1% uptick in June and no change in May.  Tokyo consumer prices, excluding fresh food, edged up 0.1% in August but remained 0.1% below a year earlier.

Canadian producer prices increased 0.7% on month in July, most since February, but were just 0.1% greater than a year earlier.

Copyright 2015, Larry Greenberg.  All rights reserved.  No secondary distribution without express permission.

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