All You Need to Know about U.S. Nonfarm Payroll Employment Growth

February 7, 2014

The bird’s eye view of jobs growth over the past 34 years shows an extremely adverse deviation from trend after Y2K.  During the first 20 years between January 1980 and January 2000, employment rose at an annual rate of 1.82%, with practically identical rates of climb in each decade of that span.  Over the next seven years to January 2007, jobs advanced by 0.71% per annum, a 61% slowdown.  And over the latest seven years between January 2007 and January 2014, jobs increases by at an infinitesimal pace of 0.01% per year.  The space between the current level of employed workers, 137.5 million, and the level if jobs had instead continued to expand at the rate in the 1980s and 1990s is wider than the Grand Canyon.  With so much unutilized labor and very subdued private-sector credit growth, continuing sub-trend inflation is virtually assured.

Copyright 2014, Larry Greenberg.  All rights reserved.  No secondary distribution without express permission.



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