Deeper Analysis
Nice Spate of U.S. Data this Month
December 16, 2013
Fed tapering doesn’t look so risky to investors in bonds and stocks if such is done in response to ample evidence of a recovery that can handle the shift, and that foundation of justification looks stronger at mid-December than in November. The labor market has performed better. Non-farm payroll jobs expanded at least 200K in […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Tankan Survey and Flash Ezone PMI Results above Expectations
December 16, 2013
The dollar this Monday shows overnight declines of 0.4% against the Swiss franc, 0.3% versus the euro and 0.1% relative to the yen and sterling. The greenback climbed 0.3% against the Australian dollar and 0.1% vis-a-vis the kiwi, and it is unchanged against the loonie and yuan. Share prices mostly fell in the Pacific Rim […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week
December 13, 2013
Monetary policy meetings next week will be occurring at the Fed and in Japan, Sweden, India, Turkey, the Czech Republic, and Hungary. Minutes from the early-December meetings of the Reserve Bank of Australia Board and Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee will be published. Leaders of EU gather in Brussels at week’s end for their […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Quiet Friday the Thirteenth
December 13, 2013
The yen touched 103.94 per dollar overnight, its weakest value against the dollar since October 2008, and also hit a 5-year low of 142.85 per euro. On net, however, the dollar is up only 0.2% against the Japanese currency. Yen softness was fanned by heightened speculation that the Bank of Japan will be soon ramping […] More
Central Bank Watch
Central Bank of Peru: No Rate Change this Month
December 12, 2013
Officials did not spring a surprise rate cut in December as they had in November. The reduction in November was the first cut since February 2010. In the year from May 2010 through May 2011, the Peruvian reference interest rate was lifted ten times from a low of 1.25% to 4.25% where such remained until […] More
Central Bank Watch
Central Bank of Chile
December 12, 2013
Chile’s monetary policy interest rate had been cut by 25 basis points in both October and November, and an earlier such reduction was made in January 2012. But after this month’s policy meeting today, officials left the rate at 4.5%. A released statement observes gradually slowing growth and inflation that now lies marginally below its […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Don’t Count on Across-the-Board Dollar Strength from Reduced Fed Asset Purchases
December 12, 2013
The Fed has floated several “tapering” balloons since last spring. The eventuality of lessening quantitative monetary stimulus has been on the table for over seven months, plenty enough to become a fact of investment life. If the dollar were to have benefited sharply or across the board from this possibility, it would surely have happened. […] More
Central Bank Watch
Quarterly Review of Swiss Monetary Policy
December 12, 2013
Officials at the Swiss National Bank Decided to retain a zero point and 0.0-0.25% range target on the three-month Swiss libor rate. Retained a 1.2000 franc per euro cap on the exchange rate to be enforced by unlimited intervention and whatever other means prove necessary but noted that intervention hasn’t been needed since September 2012. […] More
Central Bank Watch
Central Bank of the Philippines Leaves Overnight Lending and Borrowing Rates at 5.5% and 3.5%
December 12, 2013
Trust but verify is the message of the latest interest rate policy statement from officials at Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas. Each of the past four rate changes was a cut of 25 basis points, and all four were administered in 2012. The statement calls inflation “manageable” but concedes that price risks are skewed to the […] More
Central Bank Watch
Bank Indonesia’s Main Interest Rate Left Unchanged at 7.5%
December 12, 2013
The 7.5% BI rate is at its highest level since April 2009 when it was en-route from 9.5% prior to December 2008 to 6.5% by August 2009. The current trend, in contrast, is upward. From 5.75% maintained previously since February 2012, the BI rate was lifted this year in the face of rupiah depreciation, an […] More
