Next Week

April 19, 2013

Central bank policy meetings are scheduled next week in Mexico, Hungary, Israel, New Zealand, the Philippines and, most importantly, Japan, where a semi-annual Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices will be unveiled and explained at a press conference by Governor Kuroda.  This will be the second BOJ meeting of April.  Coming into the month, it was thought that easing steps would be announced at both meetings, but officials got far ahead of the curve of market expectations in what they did at the first meeting and seem unlikely to extend stimulus further at this time.

On Thursday, markets will be closed  in Australia and New Zealand for a day of remembrance known as Anzac Day, in Portugal for Freedom Day that commemorates the Carnation Revolution of 1974, and in Italy for Liberation Day, the holiday that celebrates the ouster of Mussolini in 1945.

Semi-annual IMF/World Bank meetings will wrap up.

The U.S. data calendar shows four upcoming housing market releases: the Case Shiller and FHFA house price indices and new and existing home sales.  The major release of the week will be the first estimate of first-quarter GDP growth and the core personal consumption price deflator.  Other releases include the Kansas City and Richmond Fed manufacturing indices, the revised U. Michigan/Reuters index of consumer sentiment, durable goods orders, the Markit preliminary manufacturing PMI, and weekly observations of jobless insurance claims, chain store sales, energy inventories, mortgage applications, and consumer comfort.  Treasury Secretary Lew will be testifying Thursday about the administration’s budget proposals.

Planned Japanese data releases include small business sentiment compiled by Shoko Chukin Bank, consumer prices, supermarket sales, corporate service prices, and the manufacturing purchasing manager survey results.  Other Asian releases of note will be China’s preliminary PMI results and business sentiment, South Korean GDP and consumer confidence, Hong Kong and Filipino trade figures, Singapore and Hong Kong consumer prices, and Thai, Taiwanese, and Singaporean industrial production.

In the euro area, the preliminary PMI results are due for the whole areas as well as for Germany and France.  Last year’s debt/GDP and fiscal deficit-to-GDP ratios will be revealed Monday for the whole region and its individual members.  A preliminary Ezone estimate of consumer confidence and monthly money and credit figures arrive next week as well.  Some of the individual country releases next week are German import prices and the IFO business climate index; French business and consumer confidence plus index of leading economic indicators; Italian consumer confidence and retail sales; Spanish, Finnish, and Dutch producer prices; Dutch and Belgian consumer sentiment and business climate indices; Greek trade and current account numbers; Dutch consumer spending, Finnish unemployment, Cypriot retail sales, and Austrian industrial production.

The U.K. has scheduled the release of 1Q GDP, the March index of service sector activity, the CBI surveys of distributive trades and industrial trends, BBA mortgage figures, and monthly public sector finances.

Some other European data to watch for next week will be Swiss money growth, the Swiss index of leading economic indicators and the UBS indicator of Swiss consumption trends; Sweden’s PPI, trade surplus and jobless rate; Danish and Polish retail sales; Czech business and consumer confidence; Polish and Hungarian unemployment; and Icelandic wage costs.

Canada and Mexico will be reporting retail sales, while Brazil releases producer prices and unemployment.

Quarterly Australian consumer prices are due.  So are New Zealand trade numbers, Turkish manufacturing confidence, and South African producer prices.

Copyright 2013, Larry Greenberg.  All rights reserved.  No secondary distribution without express permission.



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