Administrative Note and News Summary

November 1, 2012

Many people in the New York Metropolitan area including me continue to struggle from a lack of power and internet access.  Since Monday’s close, the dollar has ticked just 0.3% and 0.2% lower against the euro and yen.  The DJIA shows a 1% gain from Friday, and the 10-year Treasury is unchanged.

Many PMI results have been released.

  • The U.S. Institutes of Supply Management’s manufactoring index rose 0.2 points to a reading of 51.7 in October.
  • Euroland’s retail PMI fell 1.8 points to 45.3, erasing most of September’s improvement.
  • The Dutch manufacturing PMI fell 1.8 points to 48.9.  The Irish index rose 0.3 to 52.1.  The Greek PMI regressed 1.2 points to a mere 41.0 score.
  • Switzerland’s PMI rose 2.5 points to 46.1.  Sweden’s fell by 1.6 points to 46.1.
  • China’s PMI (a la HSBC) printed at 49.5 versus a flash estimate of 49.1 and a September reading of 47.9.  Orders exceeded 50 (meaning expansion) for the first time in a year.
  • India’s factory PMI edged up to 52.9 from 52.8,
  • The Vietnamese PMI slid 0.5 points to 48.7 from a 5-month high.
  • Taiwan’s PMI rose to 47.8 from 45.6.  Indonesia’s increased 1.4 points to 51.9.
  • Russia scored a 52.9, up by 0.5 points.
  • Australia’s manufacturing index rebounded to 45.2 following 44.1 in September and 45.3 in August.
  • The Polish PMI was 47.3 aftert 47.0 in September.  The 47.2 Czech reading was 0.8 lower than the September reading.  The Czech National Bank halved its repo rate to 0.25%, a record low.
  • Britain’s manufacturing PMI reading of 47.5, lowest since July 2011, was down from 48.1.
  • Turkey’s 52.5 was up from 52.2.
  • Canada’s PMI of  51.4 was a full point less than in September.  The Brazilian PMI of 50.2 was 0.4 points higher han the previous months.

The Reserve Bank of India left its key interest rate unchanged at 8.0%.

Hungary’s central bank cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 6.25%.

The Bank of Japan expanded its asset purchase plan by JPY 11 trillion to 91 trillion yen.  The zero to 0.1% interest rate target range was retained.  New forecasts look for growth of 1.5% this fiscal year, 1.6% in FY13, and 0.6% in FY14.  Core inflation is projected at minus 0.1% this fiscal year and 0.4% in FY13.

Japanese industrial production slumped 4.1% in September, while the jobless rate held at 4.2%.  Real household spending was 0.9% lower than in September 2011.  Wage earnings in September were unchanged from a year earlier.

The CBI survey of British distributive services improved to a 30 reading in October from 6 in September and minus 3 in August.

The Norges Bank left Norway’s key interest rate unchanged at 1.5%.

French PPI inflation accelerated to 2.4% in September from 2.2% in August.

German retail sales were 3.1% lower in September than a year earlier.

Italian consumer price inflation slowed to 2.6% in October.  Producer prices also had a 2.6% 12-month increase.

Euroland’s economic sentiment index weakened to 84.5 in October from 85.2.

It’s hard to believe the U.S. election is just five days away.  Reduced turnout favors the Republicans, but a natural disaster generally favors incumbents.  Very hard to predict.

Copyright 2012, Larry Greenberg.  All rights reserved.  No secondary distribution without express permission.



3 Responses to “Administrative Note and News Summary”

  1. forexcrunch says:

    I hope you are weathering the storm.
    Regarding the last note: “Reduced turnout favors the Democrats, but a natural disaster generally favors incumbents. Very hard to predict.” – it seems that both factors favor Obama, the Democrat incumbent. Or did you mean that a lower turnout favors the Republicans?

  2. larrygreenberg says:

    Thanks. Yes I meant to say low turnout favors Republicans. Was racing to finnish so the next person could use this computer.

  3. forexcrunch says:

    Thanks and stay safe!