Deeper Analysis
British Growth: The Devil Is in the Details
May 25, 2011
Real GDP in the U.K. expanded 1.9% at an annualized rate according to the second estimate by the Office for National Statistics. That matched the first estimate and left GDP at the same level as in the third quarter of 2010. Fourth-quarter 2010 activity had been slammed by harsh weather mostly in December, and the […] More
Central Bank Watch
Turkish Monetary Policy Left Unchanged
May 25, 2011
Monetary authorities at the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey decided as expected to continue their wait-and-see stance, observing the lagged impact of various policy changes late last year and in early 2011. In May 2010, the one-week repo rate was adopted as the key operative central bank policy interest rate. It has been […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Concerns Continue about Advanced Economies
May 25, 2011
The dollar is mixed, and stocks are trading precariously. The dollar rose 0.6% against the Australian dollar and by 0.2% relative to the yen, Canadian dollar, euro, and kiwi. The greenback is down by 0.4% against the Swiss franc, 0.3% versus sterling and 0.1% against the yuan. Equities fell 1.3% in South Korea, 1.2% in […] More
Deeper Analysis
A Year to Remember in German GDP Growth
May 24, 2011
Real GDP in Germany advanced 1.5% in the first quarter, or 6.1% annualized, and it wasn’t even the strongest quarter in the past year. GDP had climbed by 12.1% in 2Q10, or 8.7% annualized. Adjusted for working day variations, GDP was 4.9% higher in 1Q11 than a year earlier and 7.3% greater than the level […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Euro Trading Back Above $1.4000 But Greek Problem Persists
May 24, 2011
The euro, which touched a low of $1.3969 on Monday, recovered to $1.4108, 0.4% stronger than Monday’s close. The dollar is also down overnight by 1.0% against the kiwi, 0.6% versus the Aussie dollar, 0.4% relative to the Swiss franc, 0.3% against the yen and sterling, and 0.1% versus the Chinese yuan. Stocks have stabilized […] More
Larry's Blog
U.S. Performance Didn’t Measure Up to Theory
May 23, 2011
In the latter 1960s and early 1970s when I was studying economics, accepted wisdom swung away from the teachings of Keynes and embraced a neo-classical ideology that encompassed several beliefs. Renewed faith was placed in market mechanisms as a far superior way than others for deciding the allocation and distribution of goods, services and factors […] More
Central Bank Watch
Israel’s Tenth Rate Increase
May 23, 2011
Israel’s policy interest rate was increased today by 25 basis points to 3.25%. It was cut to 0.5% during the Great Recession. But way back in August 2009, the Bank of Israel implemented the first post-recession hike among all central banks. There were two more increases in 2009 of 25 basis points each, three in […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Dollar Rises as Stocks Swoon to One-Month Low
May 23, 2011
The risk trade is off, boosting the dollar by 1.1% against the euro, 1.3% relative to the Australian dollar, 0.8% versus the kiwi, 0.6% against the Swiss franc, 0.5% versus sterling, 0.4% against the Canadian dollar, and 0.2% relative to the yen and yuan. The Swiss franc set a new record high of 1.2323 per […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week
May 20, 2011
Next week begins with Canadian markets closed Monday for Victoria Day and the U.S. Treasury market shutting early afternoon on Friday for the Memorial Day weekend. The Bank of Japan will publish its monthly economic assessment and release minutes of a previous meeting, and policymakers in Colombia and Mexico will be holding interest rate-setting meetings. […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Storm Clouds Over All the Major Currencies
May 20, 2011
The industrialized economies share many common problems and challenges. Recovery from the financial crisis and Great Recession has been uneven and frustratingly moderate on the whole. The scent of possible stagflation fills the air. Fiscal deficits need to be reined in, and exit strategies from unsustainably loose monetary policies either remain in early planning stages […] More
