Next Week

April 1, 2011

The premier event during the first full week of the second quarter will be the ECB press conference on Thursday at which a likely first interest rate hike will be explained and put in the context of what markets might expect in terms of follow-up.  Other central banks holding policy meetings next week are the Bank of Japan, Bank of England, Reserve Bank of Australia, Central Reserve Bank of Peru, and National Bank of Poland.  FOMC minutes from a meeting on March 15 will be published, and the Bank of Canada will release a couple of surveys taken to gauge business prospects and the lending conditions.

Purchasing manager surveys in service industries will be released for the United States, euro area, Germany, France, the U.K., Italy, Spain, Ireland, China, Japan, Brazil, Australia, Hong Kong, and Russia.  Construction-sector PMIs for Germany and Britain, as well as the Canadian composite IVEY-PMI, are due, too.

The U.S. data calendar is light, consisting of the PMI services, consumer credit, wholesale inventories, and assorted weekly measures covering jobless insurance claims, mortgage applications, chain store sales, consumer confidence, and energy inventories.

Europe and Japan will be providing a somewhat busier flow of economic indicator releases.  Britain, Germany, Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Romania, Finland and Greece will be reporting industrial production, while Japan, Germany, France, Portugal, the Czech Republic, and Iceland release trade data.  A final estimate of fourth-quarter Euroland GDP is on the calendar, as are producer prices and the Sentix measure of investor sentiment.  Besides trade and industrial production, Germany will be reporting industrial orders and a couple of purchasing manager survey results.  Ireland, Greece, and the Netherlands announce consumer prices.

British producer prices, shop prices, index of leading economic indicators, and monthly GDP are also arriving.  So will Swiss consumer prices and unemployment and retail sales from both Romania and the Czech Republic.

Scheduled figures on Japan’s monetary base will show a very sharp acceleration as monetary policy eased to alleviate economic and financial market strains in the wake of the Sendai earthquake and collateral damage that such triggered.  Other Japanese data that are arriving next week are the economy watchers index, index of leading economic indicators, trade and current accounts, and service-sector purchasing managers index.  South Korea and the Philippines release producer prices, while Malaysian trades and Filipino money growth get reported as well.

The latest trends in Australian jobs, trade and mortgage lending will be announced.  Turkish CPI, PPI, and industrial production data are due, too. 

Canada’s main release will be the March labor force survey.  Building permits are also on the calendar.  Brazil releases consumer prices.

Copyright Larry Greenberg 2011.  All rights reserved.  No secondary distribution without express permission.


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