Next Week

December 4, 2009

The last week of 2009 without a holiday interruption has arrived.  Central banks, like everyone else, try to get their work done early, and at least eight interest rate policy meetings are scheduled, those being in Brazil, the U.K., South Korea, Canada, Peru, New Zealand, Switzerland and Chile.  In none of these instances is a policy shift anticipated.  Russia is another possibility, and there a rate cut would be likely.  The British pre-budget statement delivered by Chancellor of the Exchequer Darling is set for Wednesday, and the monthly ECB Bulletin arrives on Thursday.  Bernanke and Dudley of the Fed, Trichet, Weber, Stark, and Tumpel-Gugerill of the ECB and Stevens of the Reserve Bank of Australia speak in public at some point during the week.

No major euro area-wide statistical releases are scheduled.  However, Germany reports industrial orders and production, the current account and trade balance, and the final CPI figures.  The Bank of France will report business sentiment, and several other French indicators are on tap as well including the monthly budget, trade data, industrial production and final employment.  Italy also releases industrial output.

Japan has a large data calendar: the trade and current accounts, money and credit growth, the economy watchers index of small business sentiment, machinery orders, machine tool orders, corporate goods prices, consumer confidence and, last but not least, revised 3Q GDP growth.

This will be the week when Chinese monthly data on trade, retail sales, industrial output, fixed asset investment, money and credit, producer prices and consumer prices are reported.  India also announces industrial production, but elsewhere in Asia, the calendar is thin and second-tier stuff.

U.S. data to be announced include retail sales, consumer credit, the monthly budget, the U. Michigan consumer sentiment index, the IBD/TIPP optimism index, both business and wholesale inventories, import prices and the usual assortment of weekly fare such as jobless claims, chain store sales, energy inventories, mortgage applications, and consumer confidence.

Canada releases housing starts, house prices, building permits, and trade numbers. Brazil reports GDP.  Peruvian and Mexican trade data are due, and Mexico also reports labor statistics and consumer prices.

Britain has a big array of releases: industrial production, producer prices, trades, same store sales, shop prices, the monthly GDP growth estimate from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, the Halifax house price gauge, Nationwide’s consumer confidence index, and the CBI monthly survey of industrial trends.

Sweden releases industrial orders, industrial output, consumer prices, labor statistics and its monthly activity index.  Norway’s CPI, PPI and industrial production get reported, and so do Swiss labor market figures.

Over in Eastern Europe, the Czech Republic reports the trade and current account balances, consumer prices and finalized GDP.  Hungarian and Romanian CPI and industrial production releases are also due.

A fair number of Australian statistics arrive such as the monthly labor force survey, job ads, business sentiment, the trade and current accounts, mortgage finance, and consumer confidence.  Australia releases retail sales.  From Turkey comes GDP, the balance of payments and industrial production, and New Zealand reports manufacturing activity.

Copyright Larry Greenberg 2009.  All rights reserved.  No secondary distribution without express permission.


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