Five Worst U.S. Quarters Since Mid-1947

January 30, 2009

In only five quarters since the middle of 1947 did real U.S. GDP decline by 5.0% or more at an annualized rate.  Those quarters were 4Q60 (-5.1% saar), 1Q49 (minus 5.9%), 1Q82 (-6.4%), 2Q80 (-7.8%) and 1Q58 (-10.4%).  Last quarter is likely to become the sixth instance of negative growth with a five- or worse handle. The data are due in 50 minutes.  News overnight that Japanese industrial production plunged 39.7% saar in 4Q suggests that Japanese GDP may post a decrease exceeding 10.0% saar, and a 91% annualized advance in Japan’s inventory ratio points to an extremely weak first half of 2009 as well.

Copyright 2009 Larry Greenberg. All rights reserved. No secondary distribution without express permission.

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