Next Week
November 14, 2008
Japan’s data calendar includes third-quarter real GDP, the monthly all-industry index, department store sales and customs clearance trade figures. The Bank of Japan, which on October 31st cut its overnight call rate by 20 basis points and its discount rate by 25 bps to 0.3% and 0.5%, meets on Friday and will retain the rate levels.
Selected flash PMI readings get announced in Continental Europe on Friday, including a composite, manufacturing, as well as services score for Euroland, service and factory scores for both Germany and France. Other scheduled indicators included German producer prices and import prices, French business sentiment and personal consumption, and Italian retail sales.
Bank of England minutes for the November meeting that slashed the the repo rate to 3.0% from 4.5% are likely to reveal a unanimous decision. Dissension would not be good to air in the middle of a crisis. British indicators due next week include the monthly report on public finances, consumer prices, the CBI industrial sector survey, Rightmove’s house price index, and retail sales.
From Canada will come net securities transactions with foreigners, the index of leading economic indicators, wholesale turnover, and consumer prices.
Australian auto sales and quarterly retail sales are due.
Minutes from the FOMC meeting of October 29th, which resulted in a 50-bp rate cut to 1.0%, will be released, along with U.S. industrial production, producer prices, consumer prices, the National Association of Home Builders index, housing starts and permits, the Philly Fed and Empire State indices, the index of leading economic indicators, and the Treasury international capital flow statistics.
Commonly in recessions, actual figures are weaker than consensus more often than stronger than expectations. For example, Street analysts look for a minuscule uptick in Japanese GDP following a drop of 3.0% saar during the second quarter. But in light of a 5.1% annualized drop of industrial production last quarter, another negative result would not surprise me. Next week begins the final eighth of a year most people would like to forget, a period when a disproportionate share of annual retail activity is supposed to get transacted and a time when the dollar has shown some seasonal weakness. 2008 could easily be an exception on both counts. This holiday shopping season is going to be bleak. Too many people have lost jobs or are fearful of that happening. Even more families have seen their retirement nest eggs whacked severely. The savings to disposable discretionary income from much lower energy costs will be pocketed or used to pay down debt.
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[…] on Thursday and Friday, but have returned to where they have been for the past couple of weeks. CurrencyThoughts has written up a good post on this week’s event risks, and the crew over at DailyFX is […]