Archive for September 2008

Uncategorized

Dollar Performance During Different U.S. Presidencies

September 25, 2008

This is the fourth in a series of five examinations of comparative performances for key U.S. economic indicators during the nine presidencies since John Kennedy.  Equity prices were the focus on Monday, consumer prices were studied on Tuesday, and employment growth was dissected on Wednesday. The euro did not exist in 1961.  The yen was […] More

Uncategorized

More Signs of Economic Weakness

September 25, 2008

Data released today underscored the global fallout from what began as a U.S. sub-prime mortgage debt problem.  All continents are feeling the pain.  In Australia, new home sales fell 1.3% in August, including a 2.4% drop in detached private homes, and by 8.4% between June and August.  Japanese export growth imploded to a 12-month gain […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

New Overnight Developments Abroad: Awaiting Approval of Historic $700 Billion Rescue Plan

September 25, 2008

President Bush to meet today with McCain, Obama, and key members of Congress to hammer out a deal.  Most issues said to be resolved.  Bush told nation that  no deal would risk a long and painful recession and says markets currently not working.  Obama and McCain released a joint statement admitting deal is flawed in […] More

Larry's Blog

U.S. Employment Growth During Different Presidencies

September 24, 2008

The United States has had nine presidents since 1961.  Five were Republican and occupied the White House for 27.6 years.  The four Democrats were president for a total of 20 years.  The 7.6-year difference represents the presidency of George W. Bush, so for the forty years from January 1961 to January 2001, control of the […] More

Currency Markets in the News

German Business Sentiment Breaking Down

September 24, 2008

The prestigious IFO Economic Institute of Munich surveys firms each month for their assessment of whether business conditions are currently good or bad and whether such are likely to become more or less favorable during the next six months.  In alarming language that I cannot recall for quite some time after today’s release of the […] More

Larry's Blog

Norges Bank Leaves Benchmark Interest Rate Unchanged at 5.75%

September 24, 2008

Norway’s central bank kept policy steady as expected, and dropped signaling the possibility of one more rate advance.  There had been sixteen 25-basis point increases between June 2005 and June 25, 2008, lifting the rate from 1.75% to to 5.75%.  The prior policy meeting on August 13th had still stressed rising and higher-than-desired inflation.  Today’s […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

New Overnight Developments Abroad: European Business Confidence Swooned in September

September 24, 2008

The dollar is softer except against low-interest rate currencies like the yen and Swiss franc.  The U.S. currency slid 0.5% against the Australian dollar, 0.4% versus the kiwi, 0.3% against sterling, 0.2% against the Canadian dollar and 0.1% versus the euro.  It is up 0.5% against the yen and 0.3% against the Swissy. Equities mostly […] More

Larry's Blog

U.S. Consumer Price Inflation Under Different Presidencies

September 24, 2008

Consumer price inflation provided the biggest surprise to me when I compared five economic vital signs in the twenty years when the president was a Democrat between 1961 and 2000 to the other twenty years when the president was Republican.  Inflation averaged 4.0% per annum in the first control group and 5.1% when a Republican […] More

Currency Markets in the News

Euroland Activity Contracted More Sharply in September Than August

September 23, 2008

Euroland’s composite PMI reading in September fell after a small rebound and was also below the July reading.  A score above 50 is needed to connote expanding activity, so September’s result implies an intensifying slowdown.  September readings for the total composite PMI, its orders component, both the output and input price components, and for total […] More

Lingering Worries in Latest Canadian August CPI Data

September 23, 2008

Although total consumer prices in Canada dipped 0.2%, the first drop in seven months, the drop was not a surprise because gasoline prices slumped 6.6%.  Other elements of today’s release will keep make Bank of Canada officials reluctant to cut interest rates just yet.  Targeted core CPI rose 0.3% versus an expected 0.1% uptick and […] More

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