Zew Institute

Markets Comfortable with Tomorrow’s Likely Fed Tightening

December 13, 2016

Stocks have risen in Asia, Europe and North America. Ten-year German bunds and British gilt yields are down three basis points. The 10-year JGB yield edged a basis point lower, and the 10-year Treasury is steady. Oil is trading firmly at $52.75 per barrel, albeit down 0.2% from Monday’s close. Gold declined 0.7% to $1,157.70 per […] More

Weaker Dollar and World Share Prices Ahead of Key U.S. Data Releases

August 16, 2016

The dollar fell overnight by 1.3% against the yen (now showing a 99 handle), 1.2% relative to the Swiss franc and kiwi, 1.0% versus the euro (which is near 1.13), 0.9% vis-a-vis sterling (hurt by a rise in British inflation), 0.8% against the Aussie and Canadian dollars, and 0.3% versus the yuan. Japan’s Nikkei closed […] More

Pound Up on Reduced Brexit Fears

May 24, 2016

A new phone poll by Daily Telegraph revealed a widening margin of voters favoring Britain staying in the European Union (55% to 42%), and sterling rose 0.9% against the dollar in response. The U.S. currency otherwise climbed 0.9% against the Aussie dollar, 0.6% versus the kiwi, 0.3% vis-a-vis the euro and yen, 0.2% relative to […] More

Greek Default Risk Hangs over Markets Like a Dome

June 16, 2015

Share prices in Asia fell 3.0% in China, 2.1% in Hong Kong, 0.8% in Japan and Singapore and 0.7% in South Korea.  Equities in Europe have lost a further 3.4% in Greece, 1.5% in Spain, 1.3% in Italy, 1.1% in Germany, 0.9% in France, and 0.5% in Great Britain.  Greece’s creditors are not budging from […] More

Chinese GDP and a New Drop in Oil Prices

January 20, 2015

Chinese GDP recorded on-year growth of 7.3% last quarter, 7.3% in the second half of 2014, and 7.4% for the full calendar year.  2014 growth was the slowest since 1990 and below the government’s target for the first time years. Other Chinese data released today showed Industrial production rising at a 3-month high of 7.9% […] More

Extremely Volatile Markets

December 16, 2014

A  650-basis point hike in the Central Bank of Russia’s one-week auction rate to 17% stemmed the ruble’s plunge only momentarily, and the currency posted its greatest daily drop since the 1998 default.  Earlier today, it approached 80 per dollar, having only traversed the 40 level in October.  There is talk that capital controls or […] More

More Good News Than Bad News

November 18, 2014

Japanese Prime Minister Abe has delayed imposition of the planned consumption tax by 18 months to April 2018 and dissolved parliament effective this Friday in preparation for a snap lower house election presumably on December 21.  Abe’s LDP/Komeito coalition was elected in December 2012 to a four-year term.  An election far ahead of schedule invites […] More

Central Bankers in Spotlight

September 16, 2014

The Federal Open Market Committee begins a 2-day policy meeting today.  Chair-person Janet Yellen holds a press conference Wednesday.  Macroeconomic forecasts will be presented, and new forward guidance language is anticipated. Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda said the yen’s depreciation had on balance done more good than bad for Japan’s economy.  Some firms had complained […] More

RBA Minutes Depress Australian Dollar in Otherwise Quiet Morning

June 17, 2014

The Australian dollar declined 0.4% against its U.S. counterpart.  Minutes from the central bank’s June 3 meeting contained a more sober view of economic growth prospects, satisfaction that inflation will stay in target, and the continuing assertion that Australia’s exchange rate is stronger than warranted. The U.S. currency otherwise is is uchanged against the euro, […] More

Tuesday Marked by U.S.-Sino Data Releases and a Restrictive Australian Budget

May 13, 2014

China released retail sales, industrial production and business investment.   Japanese money growth slowed to a 12-month low. U.S. retail sales, import prices, small business sentiment, business inventories, and weekly chain store sales will be reported later in the day. It’s budget day in Australia, and markets are braced for a big dose of austerity there […] More

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