Yellen

Fed and Flynn

February 15, 2017

Markets are trading on two themes primarily: How quickly will the Fed raise interest rates again? Yellen’s testimony yesterday and separate remarks by Fed District Presidents Kaplan and Lacker suggest a third increase is coming pretty soon and need not be delayed pending clarification of fiscal and other policy changes. Yellen reprises her testimony before the […] More

A Valentine’s Day Full of Data and Other Developments

February 14, 2017

Market Movement: The dollar is higher against sterling but lower against the euro, Swissie, yen, and commodity-sensitive currencies. Oil and gold climbed 1.3% and 0.7% overnight. 10-year German bund and Japanese JGB yields rose a basis point, while the 10-year Treasury and British gilt slid a basis point. Japan’s Nikkei slumped 1.1%. Central Bank News: […] More

Markets Wonder What Yellen Will Say Today

November 17, 2016

Thursday is being dominated by Fed Chair Yellen’s morning testimony before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress. It will be her first remarks since Donald Trump was elected president on an agenda of more stimulative fiscal policy. She will not doubt be asked how such might affect the trajectory of central bank interest rates. Other […] More

Expected U.S. Inflation Moves Up

October 17, 2016

Janet Yellen’s wide-ranging speech before the weekend appears to have lifted price expectations. The Fed Chair seemed to favor letting inflation exceed target temporarily. Share and bond prices, as well as oil are generally softer. So is the dollar, sterling and some emerging market currencies like the Turkish lira. Turkey’s jobless rate jumped 0.5 percentage […] More

Rising Expectations of a Fed Rate Hike before Yearend

August 26, 2016

Today’s focus is on Janet Yellen’s address in Wyoming this morning. Ahead of that speech, markets are pricing more than even odds of a hike in the federal funds rate at one of the three remaining FOMC meetings this year and up to a 30% probability officials act at the September meeting. The dollar lost […] More

Stocks Fall and Dollar Rally Pauses

August 25, 2016

Today’s shocker came from the German IFO Institute’s monthly business climate index, which dived 2.1 points in August to a 6-month low of 106.2. Current conditions (down 2.0 points to a 7-month low) and business expectations (off 2.0 points to a 6-month trough) shared equally in this considerably weaker than expected outcome. Several data reports […] More

Modestly Softer Dollar

June 22, 2016

Dollar slippage so far today amounts to 0.6% against the Aussie dollar, 0.5% versus the kiwi, 0.4% relative to sterling and the euro, 0.3% vis-a-vis the yen and loonie and 0.2% against the yuan. Janet Yellen will be reprising her semi-annual testimony on monetary policy and the U.S. economy, this time before the House Financial […] More

Eroded Confidence in Central Banks

June 16, 2016

The yen leaped as high as 103.55 per dollar from 105.95 at the Wednesday close following the Bank of Japan’s decision not to change policy settings at its June meeting.  The Nikkei tumbled 3.1% to 15,434, and the 10-year JGB yield is at -0.21%. Investors were bummed out by Janet Yellen’s press conference yesterday.  While […] More

Continuing Brexit Concerns and FOMC Day

June 15, 2016

A fifth published poll of British voters gives an edge to those favoring an exit from the European Union. Today’s main event will be the FOMC statement due at 18:00 GMT and subsequent press conference. China made news in three ways earlier today.  First, MSCI announced it will not include equities in its indices. The second […] More

Yellen’s Speech Today and the Dollar Outlook

June 6, 2016

The Fed Chair’s speech in Philadelphia today did not depart significantly from her previous comments on the U.S. economic outlook, risks to the baseline forecast, and how Fed policy might evolve from here.  One apparent change, which markets already had concluded, is that a federal funds rate hike to 0.50% at next week’s FOMC meeting […] More

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