U.S. trade deficit
Brief Comment on U.S. Jobless Insurance Claims and Trade Deficit
April 2, 2020
New weekly jobless insurance claims, which are a proxy for layoffs, shot up by a much greater-than-forecast 6.648 million workers. This was the second big overshoot in a row, yielding a 2-week total of 9.955 million. The weekly average of new claims in the first two months of 2020 had been 212-3/8K, by comparison. As […] More
Trade Tensions Trigger Stampede Out of Risk
August 2, 2019
U.S.-China trade talks do not appear to be going well, and U.S. June trade data didn’t help investor confidence that the problem may get resolved. Stock markets and sovereign debt yields tumbled around the world, as investors ran from riskier assets. Among currencies, traditional safe havens like the yen (up 0.8% against the dollar overnight) […] More
Unorthodox Appointments, Service Sector PMIs, and an Early Market Close in the United States
July 3, 2019
The dollar recorded scant net change Wednesday aside from 0.6% declines against the Australian and New Zealand dollars. Share prices fell 1.1% in China and 0.5% in Japan but were buoyed in Europe and the United States by some unexpected key appointments that investors are perceiving as a harbinger of more forceful easy money policies. […] More
Soft Data and Event Risk
February 27, 2019
It’s been a mixed morning for the dollar, which is unchanged against the yen and euro, 0.4% firmer against the Australian and New Zealand currencies, but down 0.5% versus sterling, 0.3% relative to the yuan and loonie, 0.2% vis-a-vis the Swiss franc, and 0.1% against the peso. WTI oil advanced 2.1%, while the price of […] More
Growth in U.S. Manufacturing Slowed Sharply Last Month Both Absolutely and Relative to Euroland Counterpart
January 3, 2019
In contrast to November when the ISM-compiled U.S. purchasing managers index exceeded the IHS-compiled PMI for the euro area by the widest margin in four years, that differential in December narrowed by 4.8 index points in December to an 8-month low of 2.7 points. The U.S. index dropped 5.2 points to a 25-month low of […] More
Gold and Yen Stronger but Stocks, Bond Yields, and Emerging Market Currencies Decline
April 5, 2016
The yen is 0.6% stronger on balance, powered by a fresh wave of safe-haven seeking capital flows. Many service sector PMI reports were disappointing. Japan’s index and its composite PMI fell to one-year lows, for example. The yen touched 110.26 per dollar, its most appreciated level since October 2014. Comex gold rose 1.3% to $1,231.59. […] More
U.S. Trade Deficit Contained by Plunging Price of OPEC Oil
December 29, 2015
The census-basis U.S. merchandise trade deficit of $614.2 billion accrued over the first ten months of 2015 was an insignificant $3.45 billion wider than the year-earlier shortfall. However, that trivial change masks huge shifts in the distribution of deficit across foreign markets. Trade with OPEC swung to a $4.35 billion surplus from a $47.8 billion […] More
Equities Holding Friday-Monday Gains So Far
October 6, 2015
The dollar has lost 0.4% against the Australian dollar, 0.3% versus the euro, 0.2% vis-a-vis sterling, and 0.1% against the yen and Swissie. The dollar edged 0.1% higher relative to the kiwi and yuan. China’s currency has pulled ahead of the yen into fourth place among most used monies around the world. Japan’s Nikkei closed […] More
Spain Getting Another Dose of Fiscal Austerity
July 11, 2012
Spain’s government will implement its fourth package of fiscal austerity in the last seven months. It will amount to EUR 65 billion, too much for social sustainability but insufficient to reach budget targets. The dollar fell overnight against commodity-sensitive currencies, dropping 0.8%, 0.7% and 0.4% relative to the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars. The […] More
The Dollar, Capital Flows, and U.S. Trade Deficit
February 15, 2012
Released data on the the U.S. trade balance each month and current account each quarter seldom evoke an immediate currency market response. The balance of payments, a summary compilation of all transactions with foreigners must net to zero because of the double entry accounting convention that records each item twice but with opposite signs. Portions […] More
