U.S. productivity

A Steady Dollar

November 6, 2019

The dollar on balance remains near Tuesday closing levels. Gold is 0.3% firmer. The spate of recent increases in 10-year sovereign debt yields was reversed today with 3-basis point declines in U.S. Treasuries and British gilt yields and a dip of 1 basis point in the 10-year German bund yield. The Japanese 10-year JGB yield, […] More

ECB Policy Shift Drives Stocks and Sovereign Debt Yields Lower, Dollar and Yen Higher

March 7, 2019

The Governing Council of the European Central Bank revised projected growth and inflation significantly downward, postponed the first possible interest rate hike to beyond 2019, announced a third round of quarterly targeted longer-term TLTROs to help “preserve favorable bank lending conditions and the smooth transmission of monetary policy,” retained a negative risk balance in spite […] More

Markets Assuming Powell Getting Named Fed Chair

November 2, 2017

President Trump will formally announce his choice of Federal Reserve chairperson today at 15:00 EDT. The worst kept secret is that Jerome Powell will likely get the nod. Although a lawyer by training, his career has been immersed in financial markets. Other top news: Euroland’s October purchasing managers index rose 0.4 points to an 80-month […] More

More Diversified Financial Market Movements

February 4, 2016

At least for today, it’s no longer a matter of risk-on or risk-off for all assets.  Some of this differentiation stems from more blatant currency warfare. Yesteday’s revealed sharp decline in the U.S. non-manufacturing purchasing managers index triggered a dollar sell-off.  The U.S. currency today has fallen by an additional 0.7% against the euro and […] More

An Informing Day with Some Surprises

November 5, 2015

U.S. labor productivity unexpectedly rose last quarter and substantially so at that.  A gain of 1.6% on top of a 3.5% second-quarter increase resulted in a significantly smaller quarter-over-quarter 1.4% climb in unit labor costs.  Nonetheless, the big productivity picture remains soft, with a rise of just 0.4% between 3Q14 and 3Q15 versus 0.8% in […] More

Musings on Midyear and the Greek Crisis

July 1, 2015

What is it about the cusp that separates the first and second half of the calendar year?  The Greek government’s failure to meet its debt payment to the IMF on June 30th brings to mind the devaluation of the Thai bhat on July 1, 1997 that lit the match and ignited a devastating Asian debt […] More

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