U.S. productivity
Ezone Producer Price Inflation Leaps; Bank of England Defers Hiking its Bank Rate
November 4, 2021
The intensity of recent inflation has become an all-pervasive concern on numerous fronts. A 2.7% monthly leap in Euroland producer prices during September (led by a 7.7% increase in energy costs) lifted the 12-month rate of producer price inflation by 2.6 percentage points to 16.0%. The monthly and yearly comparisons were each the greatest in […] More
Disconnection Thursday Between Recessionary Data and Buoyant Stocks
May 7, 2020
Equities were mixed in Asia but have risen more impressively in Europe this morning. There were drops of 0.8% in India, 0.7% in Hong Kong and 0.2% in China but advances of 0.6% in Taiwan, 0.3% in Japan and 0.5% in New Zealand. The British Ftse, German Dax, and Paris Cac each have risen at […] More
A Steady Dollar
November 6, 2019
The dollar on balance remains near Tuesday closing levels. Gold is 0.3% firmer. The spate of recent increases in 10-year sovereign debt yields was reversed today with 3-basis point declines in U.S. Treasuries and British gilt yields and a dip of 1 basis point in the 10-year German bund yield. The Japanese 10-year JGB yield, […] More
ECB Policy Shift Drives Stocks and Sovereign Debt Yields Lower, Dollar and Yen Higher
March 7, 2019
The Governing Council of the European Central Bank revised projected growth and inflation significantly downward, postponed the first possible interest rate hike to beyond 2019, announced a third round of quarterly targeted longer-term TLTROs to help “preserve favorable bank lending conditions and the smooth transmission of monetary policy,” retained a negative risk balance in spite […] More
Markets Assuming Powell Getting Named Fed Chair
November 2, 2017
President Trump will formally announce his choice of Federal Reserve chairperson today at 15:00 EDT. The worst kept secret is that Jerome Powell will likely get the nod. Although a lawyer by training, his career has been immersed in financial markets. Other top news: Euroland’s October purchasing managers index rose 0.4 points to an 80-month […] More
More Diversified Financial Market Movements
February 4, 2016
At least for today, it’s no longer a matter of risk-on or risk-off for all assets. Some of this differentiation stems from more blatant currency warfare. Yesteday’s revealed sharp decline in the U.S. non-manufacturing purchasing managers index triggered a dollar sell-off. The U.S. currency today has fallen by an additional 0.7% against the euro and […] More
An Informing Day with Some Surprises
November 5, 2015
U.S. labor productivity unexpectedly rose last quarter and substantially so at that. A gain of 1.6% on top of a 3.5% second-quarter increase resulted in a significantly smaller quarter-over-quarter 1.4% climb in unit labor costs. Nonetheless, the big productivity picture remains soft, with a rise of just 0.4% between 3Q14 and 3Q15 versus 0.8% in […] More
Musings on Midyear and the Greek Crisis
July 1, 2015
What is it about the cusp that separates the first and second half of the calendar year? The Greek government’s failure to meet its debt payment to the IMF on June 30th brings to mind the devaluation of the Thai bhat on July 1, 1997 that lit the match and ignited a devastating Asian debt […] More
