U.S. and Canadian trade balances
Better Market Tone Than Earlier This Week
April 4, 2024
There’s an old adage not to bet against the central bank. Market participants earlier this week had been unnerved by fears that disinflation is stalling amid improving aggregate demand. Yesterday’s speech at Stanford University by Fed Chairman Powell depicted essentially unchanged forward policy guidance. The precise path of the federal funds target may be currently […] More
Softer Dollar and Sovereign Debt Prices as Central Banks Not Rushing to Ease but Equities Showing Some Resilience
February 7, 2024
The dollar slid overnight by 0.3% against sterling and 0.2% relative to the euro, Canadian dollar and as measured by the DXY weighted index. A further rise in sovereign debt yields today — 4 basis points in British 10-year gilts, 3 basis points in 10-year U.S. Treasuries, and 2 basis points in German, French, Italian […] More
Reevaluating Scope for Lessening Monetary Restraint
January 9, 2024
Ten-year sovereign debt yields climbed five basis points overnight in Germany, France and Spain and by four bps in the United Kingdom. The 10-year Treasury yield is unchanged from Monday’s 4.03% closing level but 24 basis points higher than its close on December 27th. Inflation around the world has fallen significantly below peak, but doubts […] More
Quick Shift in Market Focus from U.S. Political Chaos to the Price of Oil and Tomorrow’s U.S. Jobs Report
October 5, 2023
The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil plunged around 12% from last Friday’s high of $93.68 to an overnight low of $82.35. The much lower-than-presumed 89k estimated September rise in private U.S. jobs by ADP has raised concerns about U.S. and world demand. So has a surprisingly big increase in U.S. oil inventories last […] More
Service Sector Purchasing Manager Surveys and Some Central Banking Developments
April 5, 2023
The dollar overnight traded 0.6% higher against the Australian dollar, 0.5% lower versus the Japanese yen, and held steady on balance against the euro and Canadian dollar. Equities closed down 1.7% and 0.7% in Japan and Hong Kong and up 0.8% and 0.6% in India and South Korea. In Europe, the German Dax is down […] More
Powell’s Hawkish Message Received Along With Some Data Surprises
March 8, 2023
TINA is the acronym for there-is-no-alternative, and that is the unflinching stance that the Federal Reserve wants to convey regarding its priority to restore in-target two percent inflation whatever such takes. In day one of Chairman Powell’s semi-annual testimony before congress yesterday, that message was expressed more forcefully than before including the surprise hint that […] More
U.S. Data Out Today Supports Fed Message that a Rate Cut in 2023 is Highly Doubtful
January 5, 2023
The 2022 dynamic of progressively tighter Fed policy supporting the dollar and depressing stocks and bonds remains intact. Minutes from the December FOMC meeting project higher interest rates persisting for some time and indicates that market valuations that imply an initial rate cut late in 2023 are premature. Although inflation cooled in recent months in […] More
Equity Retreat Extended and Dollar Narrowly Mixed
December 6, 2022
Overnight dollar movements include a rise of 0.4% against the loonie coupled with a drop of 0.4% against the Swiss franc; an uptick of 0.2% relative to the yen versus a 0.2% downtick against the euro, dips of 0.1% vis-a-vis the Australian and New Zealand dollars, and no net change against sterling. More significant change […] More
Equity Rout Paused but Rise of Commodity Prices Continues
March 8, 2022
The price of Nickel soared more than 200%, forcing that exchange to stop trading. Prices for silver (+2.6%), WTI oil (+2.5%), wheat (+1.2%) and gold (+0.8%) climbed further as well. The euro recovered 0.3% overnight, causing the DXY dollar index to fall almost 0.3%. The greenback gained 0.4% against the yen, 0.5% versus the Australian […] More
Narrowly Mixed Dollar… Tuesday Data Menu Features GDP
June 8, 2021
The dollar slipped overnight by 0.4% against the Mexican peso, 0.3% relative to the Turkish lira and 0.2% versus the Swiss franc but rose but 0.2% versus the kiwi and sterling and 0.1% relative to the euro, yen, and Australian dollar. There’s been no net change in the Chinese yuan or Canadian dollar. Ten-year sovereign […] More
