A Sideshow

December 7, 2012

The striking trait about recent movement in key dollar relationships is their continuing unremarkability.  Very interesting stuff has been happening on the policy front, and this is the sixth straight December in which investors have compelling grounds to be unhappy about the state of most developed economies and many emerging markets.  But the thrill seems […] More

What an Absence of High Inflation Means for Currencies

April 20, 2012

Economists and investors see different primary economic threats.  In the marketplace, a high level of fiscal deficit phobia continues.  The fear is that fiscal excess accommodated by low central bank interest rates will produce accelerating inflation.  Elevated commodity prices may constitute the foothills of that trend, and the pessimists also note that many emerging economies […] More

11-11-11: One’s Are Wild

November 11, 2011

It’s Veterans Day in the United States, France and Canada.  The Armistice to end the First World War was signed 93 years ago today.  Overnight market activity was comparatively subdued, but closures for today’s holiday will be only partial.  U.S. stock markets are open. The new Greek cabinet to be headed by Lucas Papademos has […] More

Lessons from an Eventful Week

October 28, 2011

In the final week of October, Euroland leaders at least managed to agree on something, but the substance of the agreement left virtually all analysts still very concerned about the region.  A significantly stronger U.S. growth rate in 3Q than the first half was meanwhile confirmed.  Quantitative easing by the Bank of Japan was expanded, […] More

The Top Concern is the Euro Debt Crisis

September 16, 2011

Next week’s main anticipated event will be the FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, but the central problem weighing on global financial market psychology continues to be the euro area’s sovereign debt crisis.  Greece remains the likeliest domino to fall.  A default by Greece before yearend is considered  likely, and Greek long-term interest rates remain […] More

New Worries at the Swiss National Bank about Deflation

September 15, 2011

At the regularly scheduled quarterly review of monetary policy, no further measures were unveiled, but Swiss central bank authorities tied the many actions announced since early August to a fresh threat of domestic deflation and recession caused by a “massively overvalued” franc and worsening prospects in Switzerland’s trading partners and global financial markets. To recap […] More

Swiss Authorities Set Ceiling on Franc

September 6, 2011

The current massive overvaluation of the Swiss franc poses an acute threat to the Swiss economy and carries the risk of a deflationary development. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is therefore aiming for a substantial and sustained weakening of the Swiss franc. With immediate effect, it will no longer tolerate a EUR/CHF exchange rate below […] More